Will Biden-Xi meet at G20 summit halt slide in US-China ties?

Xi aims to upturn the existing regional order in Asia. He has warned the United States consistently against crossing China's red lines over Taiwan.

In the wake of the recent visits of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Congressional leaders to Taiwan and China's subsequent military reaction in the region, Sino-US ties have reached a new low. Will the upcoming November meeting of US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in person at the G-20 summit in Indonesia halt the slide in their relations?

Observers say summits matter little when there is a huge divergence over fundamental interests between any two nations. Long gone is the spirit of bonhomie that prevailed in relations between Washington and Beijing for long after the historic Richard Nixon-Mao Zedong summit of the early seventies. Since the start of his presidency, President Biden has talked to his Chinese counterpart Xi four times on phone or video. This has not helped. Xi aims to upturn the existing regional order in Asia. He has warned the United States consistently against crossing China's red lines over Taiwan.

"Those who play with fire will perish by it," Xi was quoted as saying in his last call to Biden in July 2022. Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe said at the Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore in June, "The wheels of history roll on, and no one can stop China's path towards reunification... If you want confrontation, we will fight to the end."

Beijing aims to retake Taiwan over time with measures. It has been taking every opportunity to move towards that. In the wake of the Pelosi visit, China held exercises to practice joint operations among different branches of the People's Liberation Army.

China has conducted a decades-long military build-up to create a military force capable of retaking the island by force. Beijing has recently published a white paper on "The Taiwan Question and China's Reunification in the New Era." It has removed previous reassurances offered to Taiwan about its future position in a united China, such as not stationing Chinese troops on the island.

In a press briefing on August 12, Kurt Campbell, Indo-Pacific coordinator for the US National Security Council said, "China's actions are fundamentally at odds with the goal of peace and stability... The goal of this campaign is clear: to intimidate and coerce Taiwan and undermine its resilience."

The Biden administration can do little even if it wished to improve US-China ties today. Elite and congressional opinion in the United States are for a much tougher line against Beijing-over Taiwan. Biden did not want Speaker Pelosi to take her recent trip to Taipei. But Pelosi prevailed.

The Republicans may retake the House of Representatives in the November midterm elections. In that case, more high-level US visitors are likely in Taipei. The United States may pass a new Taiwan Policy Act, a bipartisan bill, to elevate Taiwan into the category of "major non-NATO ally" and increase arms sales to the island.

(Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. He is also Senior Distinguished Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, New York)

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