Will anti-incumbency be a factor in the West Bengal elections 2021

New Delhi, Mar 23: As the race for the West Bengal elections 2021 hots up, the TMC would be looking to retain power, while the BJP making all efforts to unseat the existing dispensation.

While it is relatively clear as of now that the main battle is between the TMC and BJP, the question is who will come out victorious at the end. Dr. Sandeep Shastri, one of India's leading psephologists tells OneIndia that are multiple factors that one would have to look into before drawing a conclusion.

On the anti-incumbency factor considering the TMC is looking to rule for a third term, Dr. Shastri says that at the end of two terms will be some disenchantment with the government. However is there a party party which is strong enough or well organised to benefit from the sentiment.

There is no doubt that in 2019, the BJP emerged as the opposition to the TMC in the Lok Sabha elections. However that election was about the government at the Centre. When it comes to an assembly election, things are different and the voters do make a distinction, Dr Shastri says.

Can the BJP sustain or expand on that in a state poll. While there may be disenchantment against the TMC, can the BJP take advantage of it. In this election, the TMC will definitely see a decline from the last assembly elections. In the current stage it may scrape through and the BJP will rise.

The challenge for the BJP is that it does not have a local face. If you were to ask me about Suvendu Adhikari, I would say that he is a local face who has come from the TMC. The BJP would need a face who has been there in the party for sometime. The BJP continues to depend on the central leadership, but the question is how much of it can it really push to destabilise the TMC asks Dr. Shastri.

There is no doubt that the Prime Minister has been able to move the audience. But in the case of Mamata, she is among the audience. The central leadership in an election is important, but to sway the voter you need a credible local face. This becomes even more important when your rival has a strong local face, Dr. Shastri also points out.