Will a divided opposition win Modi's Gujarat?

As the assembly elections approach, the Congress is trying to lead the charge against the BJP, but other opponents are refusing to commit.

With Narendra Modi now the prime minister of India and no longer leading Gujarat, the opposition feels it is the best chance for it come to power in a state which has been in the hands of the BJP for the last 22 years.

During his reign in Gujarat, the prime minister had a firm grip on the party machinery, administration and also a direct connect with the people. Such a control had seen him remain in control of the state and keep coming to power without any serious threat from the opposition, eventually leading him to become the prime minister.

Such a situation now sees the opposition in a stronger position for the upcoming elections, than it has ever been in since Modi became the chief minister in 2002.

And the hopes of the opposition stem from a couple of factors, the biggest of them being that the prime minister is not in direct charge of his home state, and second, a series of agitations that have hit Gujarat ever since he left for Delhi, leading to the state witnessing two chief ministers in a matter of three years after having the stability of Modi from2002 to 2014.

While Congress remains the main political opposition, which is now led by a former chief minister of Gujarat, Shankersinh Vaghela, once considered the political guru of the prime minister, it is the challenge that the leaders of agitations, such as Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor, that is giving the opposition hope.

But to have any chance of displacing the BJP, the least the opposition will have to do is come together. This though is far easier said than done. As the three have so far refused to come together under one grouping to fight the BJP. And this might very well lead to the BJP coming back to power without considerable trouble.

Hardik- The Patel trigger

Hardik Patel, the young leader, and the agitation he led against the government in the state has been one of the biggest reasons of hope for the opposition.

He comes from the dominant community of Patidars, which has been one of the most important backers of the BJP in the state. His agitation had brought to the fore a chink in the armour of the party's control that it had not be seen in the last two decades.

In 2015, the Patidar agitation for reservation had taken the government by surprise and the treatment of its leaders following it had led to further alienation of the community from the party.

This according to many political commentators was one of the main reasons for Anandiben Patel, Modi's choice to take his place as the chief minister, being replaced by the current CM Vijay Rupani.

But the extent of how much of the support he has gotten yet will turn into votes for the Congress is yet to be seen. Especially as he has rejected overtures from the Congress to join the party.

According to reports, he has said that though he will transfer all his votes to the Congress, he will not join it since having the symbol of the party attached to his name would be poison. Referring to the image that Congress might have at the ground level.

Thakor's waiting game

Alpesh Thakor is the other leader that the Congress is putting its hopes on. The leader came into the limelight with his opposition to the Patidar agitation.

Thakor's have mainly been supporters of the Congress and Alpesh heads the Kshatriya Thakor Sena, which he believes stands for the 146 OBC castes in the state which are small, educationally backwards, and are in predominantly rural pockets. He has been active in movements related to issues such as the strengthening of prohibition laws, demands of government employees on contract etc.

But the leader who acknowledges that the lesson that smaller groups have the power to take on the government, came from the Patel agitation, claims to still be negotiating with both the main parties and will support whichever meets his agenda.

Congress- Standing alone

And it is this refusal of the leaders like Patel and Alpesh, that helpsincrease doubts about the party's ability to successfully take on the BJP, as for it to have any chance to win in Gujarat it does not only need their support but also a complete transfer of their votes to the party and to get over its own divisions.

The party which has till date relied on the old formula of Kshatriyas, Harijans, Advisasis and Muslims, is now hoping to rope in Patels and the middle-class for the upcoming elections. Vaghela has reportedly said that "For Modi, it is only Hindu-Muslim. But this Hindutva card is not working anymore.

Patels are now shaken. They were the party's strongest ideological and financial supporters."
But analysts continue to believe that such a situation is difficult to bear fruit and lead to the BJP's defeat and that the standing of the government being seen as left and anti-industry does not bode well for it in a state which has for the Sardar Patel's Congress and others which were considered centre-right.

And especially since unlike the local bodies elections that took place following the agitations, where the Congress was able to perform better than the ruling party, the BJP will leave no stone unturned for the assembly elections and will witness its whole central leadership behind the state machinery and with the prime minister taking charge in campaigning.

With Vaghela reportedly admitting, "This is the home turf of the PM. The prestige of both guru and is at stake. So they will use all means."

OneIndia News