STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: A complex jigsaw puzzle

The lens to look at national politics is, for the last few weeks (and the coming few weeks) the developments in key states of India going to the polls. The four states and one union territory are all witnessing a high voltage and intense electoral campaign. The political stakes for all the parties is extremely high and the electoral contest is tantalizingly close. Even though we have five different elections, the spotlight of attention seems to be on West Bengal with the other contests not receiving their due share of attention. This column will focus on all the contests but discuss West Bengal at the end.

To demonstrate the political diversity that India and its states represent it may be useful to highlight the fact that the key players in each contest is different. If Assam is witnessing a clear battle between the BJP (and its allies) and the Congress (and its allies), Tamil Nadu's electoral race remains within the shell of alliance politics led by two powerful and competing state based parties. In Kerala, the BJP is making a concerted effort to convert a stable bi-polar alliance flight into a triangular contest and Puducherry voters have to choose between a UPA alliance (Congress and DMK) which lost power before the polls and a NDA (AINRC- BJP - AIADMK) alliance which is seeking to wrest power. Finally, West Bengal is witnessing a near straight fight between the ruling Trinamul Congress and the BJP with the Left parties and the Congress being pushed to a distant third position in the electoral competition. Thus, the dynamics of each of the five elections is distinctly different.

In many ways, the closest race seems to be in Tamil Nadu. In the run up to the elections, the DMK led alliance was seen as a comfortable front runner. As the campaign kicked off the gap appears to have narrowed with the DMK led alliance still holding a slight advantage. Tamil Nadu politics has always been about electoral arithmetic and political chemistry. In the seat sharing, both the DMK and the AIADMK seem to have bargained very skillfully, forcing the national parties to scale down their demands and expectations. The DMK has a slight edge for three reasons. Firstly, the DMK has been much more accommodative of its partners and the campaign seems to be more well-knit. Secondly, the anti DMK vote seems to be split among different players and it does not seem to be necessarily going to the AIADMK led alliance. Thirdly, while Stalin appears to have clearly inherited the Karunanidhi legacy, in the AIADMK no single leader is seen as the true successor to Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK as a party is trying to project itself as representing Jayalalithaa while in the DMK, Stalin appears to be the visible face of the party for its followers. The Tamil Nadu result will be a test of how successful have the two parties (AIADMK and DMK) been in getting their supporters to accept the generational shift of leadership. In neighbouring Puducherry, the Congress led alliance seems to be on the back foot as the DMK has a limited presence here. The NDA alliance seems to be in a better position.

Kerala has had a revolving door policy for quite some time now. Ruling parties have rarely been voted back to power. The Congress must be hoping that this trend continues. The presence and the spread of the BJP in the state is a fact that is visible. Given the geographical zones where the BJP presence is spreading, conventional wisdom had us to believe that it increasing vote share would damage the Left Front. Yet the Lokniti-CSDS 2019 Lok Sabha Post Poll showed that the BJP did cut into the votes of the Congress led coalition, especially in Central and South Kerala. Thus, the result in Kerala would hinge on which alliance is able to hold on to its traditional vote better and concedes less space to the BJP.

Assam is witnessing a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress led alliances. It is the only state in the present round where the BJP has to defend its track record not just at the state level but also the wider implications of the policies pursued by the Centre. The CAA debate takes on a totally different colour in Assam. The Congress alliance has been able to consolidate the anti-BJP vote though the absence of Tarun Gogoi and his capacity to unite the Congress is going to be sorely missed by the party.

The BJP in Assam has had a Chief Minister who has preferred to be away from the spotlight leaving his deputy, Hemanta Biswal to be the focus of attention. Is that a caliberated strategy or an indication of things to come if the BJP returns to power will be interesting to see.

Finally, the competition for power in West Bengal! Ever since the BJP came to power at the national level in 2014, the stiffest competition it has faced has been from the regional leaders in important states. The battle in Bengal is a fight between a national party that wants to capitalize on its central leadership's capacity to move the masses and a state based party whose leader moves among the masses. At the end of two terms, the Trinamul surely faces elements of anti-incumbency. Yet, does the BJP have the ground level organizational skills to pull off a victory? Two factors would need to be considered here. Firstly, the BJP does not have a credible local face to counter Mamata Banerjee.

Secondly, most of those who now don the BJP colours in Bengal are those who have been with the Trinamul Congress in the not so distant past. Past experience has shown that it is quite an unsurmountable task to pull off a victory with new comers in the forefront.

The blazing summer in which this electoral battle is being fought will definitely scorch a few political stalwarts and allow the victorious to bask in the sunshine of success. Its implications for national politics is significant. If the BJP retains Assam, puts up a stiff fight in West Bengal, emerges as a crucial third force in Kerala and helps the AIADMK inch to power in Tamil Nadu, it would be a huge morale booster. If the Congress is unable to win back Kerala or snatch Assam from the BJP, it would face difficult times. A DMK victory in Tamil Nadu will be an insufficient consolation prize for the Congress.

Coming as they do after two years of the return of the BJP to power at the centre, these elections could well set the trends for the days ahead.

(Dr. Sandeep Shastri has been a keen student of Karnataka politics for over four decades)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.