Modi is the most popular PM candidate in UP, says India Today survey

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Modi is the most popular PM candidate in UP, says India Today survey
New Delhi, Feb 10: According to the India Today Group-CVoter survey, which was done in Uttar Pradesh, the state with largest number of Lok Sabha seats, Gujarat chief minister and Bharatiya Janata Party's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is the most popular leader in the state.

The survey was conducted between Jan 2 and Jan 30 this year and according to the magazine, about 9,331 respondents took part from the 80 Lok Sabha seats across the state.

Among them, about 48 per cent of the participants said that they want Modi to become the next prime minister. Around 15 per cent want Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to be the PM.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party chief Mayawati is the most popular Chief Ministerial candidate in UP (28% rating) more than twice that of Akhilesh Yadav, the chief minister of the state(12%). Smajwadi Party leaders Akhilesh's and Mulayam's popularity taken together (25%) is less than that of Mayawati (28%), says the survey.

48 percent of people said they wanted Modi as PM


Cutting across all regions in the state, Narendra Modi has the highest popularity ratings (48%). Modi's popularity is the highest in Upper Doab region (58%) and lowest in Ruhelkhand (38%).

Mayawati's popularity sees a rise only in Bundelkhand (37%) region. Everywhere else her ratings are lower than that of Modi.

Mulayam's popularity is highest in Lower Doab (31%) and lowest in Avadh (10%). Interestingly, the SP veteran's average popularity is two and half times less than that of Modi.

Congress vice=president Rahul Gandhi has very low popularity across all regions of Uttar Pradesh. Modi's popularity is more than three times that of Rahul.

Upper caste supports Modi

43% of upper castes in the state said they would vote for Modi. Congress' support among upper castes (9%) has halved in comparison with 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

According to the survey findings, OBC votes also lies with BJP in UP. 34% of OBC's said they would vote for BJP in comparison with only 14% who voted for BJP in 2009. SP is traditionally seen as an OBC dominated party. OBC support to Congress (6%) and Mayawati (11%) has come down significantly. Mulayam largely retains his OBC vote-bank (25%). However, OBC support from 2009 is down 3%.]

Muslim votes

The Muslim vote across UP is extremely fragmented. Muslim vote is being split three way in UP. Cong 22%, BSP 21%, SP 35%. Despite Muzaffarnagar riot incident and ensued controversies, SP remains first choice for UP's Muslims (35%). Congress has lost a third of its support among UP's Muslims. Support for BJP among Muslims has gone up in UP but very marginally from 5% to 7%.

BJP's gains, Congress loses

Most of BJP's gains in vote share in UP (+9%) are coming at the cost of Congress (-7%). BJP is the only party which has a positive swing in vote share (+9%). Samajwadi Party vote-share is down significantly in comparison with Assembly Elections of 2012 (-6%) but SP's vote share is same as that of Lok Sabha 2009. Congress is being routed across Uttar Pradesh losing 17 out of its 21 seats. In 1998 Congress scored 0. 5 seats in 1991,1996.

BJP's seat share (30) is thrice that of its tally in 2009 general elections.

What happens if BSP and Congress come together?

If Congress and BSP were to contest together they would dislodge Modi's dominance in UP. Congress & BSP together are projected to bag 39 out of 80 seats in UP.

If Congress-BSP alliance happen, SP's vote share will crash to 14 seats from the projected 20 seats.Also, in such a case, Muslim votes will gravitate significantly from SP towards BSP-Congress.  BJP is still far away from its 1998 score of 57 seats and 37% vote share.

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