Maharashtra: In a trilateral fight, Shiv Sena loses, NCP-Cong gain

Mumbai, Jan 18: The Congress-NCP says that the deal is done in Maharashtra. All eyes would now be on the BJP and Shiv Sena after both parties have dropped enough hints that the 2019 battle would be a solo contest.

If the BJP and Shiv Sena fight the battle on their own, then one would get to witness a trilateral fight in Maharashtra which accounts for 48 Lok Sabha seats. In the 2014 elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena together bagged 41 seats, while the Congress and NCP got 6.

In case of a trilateral contest, the Congress and NCP looks to gain, if one goes by the vote share that the parties had in the previous elections. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena together polled 48.4 per cent of the vote share. The Congress-NCP on the other hand polled 34.4 per cent.

The Maharashtra Assembly elections held in 2014 witnessed a four corner fight. In that election, the BJP polled 28.1 per cent while the Shiv Sena ended up with 19.5 per cent. The Congress and NCP ended up with 18.1 and 17.4 per cent respectively.

Going the vote share of the past, it appears that the Shiv Sena is likely to lose more than the BJP. The BJP may not be able register a mammoth victory like it did the last time without an alliance. However it is likely to hold on to at least 20 out of the 23 seats it had won in 2014. However it is the Congress-NCP that would make gains in case of a trilateral contest.

NCP leader Sharad Pawar had recently said that the deal with the Congress has been finalised. Out of the 48 seats, the two parties have reached an understanding on 45, he had also said.