All eyes are on the Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018. There are predictions already being made as to who would take the coveted states and many political parties are already conducting back-channel talks to take the seat of power at the Vidhan Soudha in case of a hung assembly.
However, leading political scientist Dr Sandeep Shastri argues that the mandate would be a clear one and the chance of a hung assembly is very low.
Dr Shastri helps OneIndia understand why Karnataka would not witness a hung assembly. He cites examples dating back to 1983 when Karnataka was in a state of political transition. Do read in to understand what he says.
There are two reasons why Karnataka will not witness a hung assembly. Given the nature of competition in Karnataka, today and the fact that the Janata Dal has been limited to small pockets of influence would ensure that the party would end up a distant third. This would mean that the key competition would be between the Congress and the BJP. The manner in which it is panning out indicates that the two parties are the mainstay in the competition. Dr Shastri says.
The year 1983 witnessed a hung assembly in Karnataka. The next time there was a hung assembly was in the year 2004. On both these occasions, Karnataka was in a state of political transition.
In 1983, the state was transiting from a one-party domination to a competitive party. In 1983 the Congress was defeated, but the people were not sure if the then Janata Party was the competitor. By 1985, it was clear and the Janata Party got the majority.
Between 1983 and 2004, the competition was between the Janata Party and the Congress. In 2004, the two-party competition system changed and the BJP came into the picture. The year 2004 saw the BJP emerging as the single largest party. It was in competition with the Congress and the Janata Dal (S), Dr Shastri explains.
The scenario is pretty similar in 2018 too. This year sees no political transition taking place. That is why I say that it will not be a hung assembly. A hung assembly is seen when the state is in political transition, Dr Shastri says.
|Karnataka Assembly Election dates|
|Date of notification||April 17|
|Last date to file nominations||April 24|
|Last date to withdraw nominations||April 27|
|Date of polling||May 12|
|Date of counting||May 15|