How the MYD factor in Uttar Pradesh is likely to hurt the BJP

New Delhi, Mar 28: In this hotly contested battle, Uttar Pradesh will hold the key. For the road ahead is not exactly an easy one this time around, considering that the SP and BSP are contesting the battle together.

There are 80 parliamentary constituencies up for grabs in Uttar Pradesh and in order to make a difference, any party would have to win a maximum number of seats.

C-Voter, a well known survey agency had said that the BJP could face trouble in 47 out of the 80 constituencies. This would be largely because of the fact that the Muslim-Dalit-Yadav (MYD) population is higher than 50 per cent. Further it also said that the MYD population in every UP seat is over 40 per cent.

This would mean that in order to succeed, any party would need to get the caste calculation right. The SP and BSP coming together would mean that each party would focus on its core area.

For instance the BSP has a strong base of both Muslim and Yadav voters and for the BSP it is the Dalits. The 2011 caste census data suggests that the Muslims comprise 19 per cent of the population, whereas the Dalits are 21 per cent in number. The Yadavs on the other hand represent 10 per cent of the population of UP.

The C-Voter survey says that 10 seats in the state has more than 60 per cent of the MYD population. These would include, Firozabad, Jaunpur, Ambedkar Nagar, Azamgarh, Ghosi, Domariyaganj, Bhadohi, Bijnor, Mohanlalganj and Sitapur.

In 2014, the scenario was entirely different. The BJP led NDA won 73 seats. While the BJP alone won 71, its ally the Apna Dal bagged 2. This incidentally is the best performance put up by any party in the past three decades. In that election, the BSP did not open its account, while the Samajwadi Party ended up with 5.

When doing a comparison of the vote share, it becomes clear that there was a strong reason why the SP and BSP tied up. The BSP secured 20 per cent of the votes, while the SP ended up with 22.5. Put together this was very close to what the NDA had bagged in the 2014 elections. It also must be noted that in the 10 constituencies, where the MYD population is more than 60 per cent, the votes polled by the BSP and SP was higher in number when compared to the NDA.

In those seats where the MYD vote is more than 40 per cent, but less than 50 the NDA polled 23 per cent, while the BSP-SP ended up with 10 per cent. In the constituencies where the MYD population was more than 50 but less than 60, the NDA polled 14 per cent and the SP-BSP, 21 per cent. The Congress accounted for 2 per cent of the votes. In the 10 constituencies where the MYD population is more than 60 per cent, both the NDA and BSP polled 10 per cent of the votes.