COVID-19: Mumbai's R-value drops below 1, showing infection rate declining

Mumbai, Oct 19: After being over one in the first half of October, Mumbai's R-value, which reflects how rapidly the coronavirus pandemic is spreading, has dropped below one, according to researchers of the Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences.

The R-value for COVID-19 in Mumbai between October 16 and 18 was 0.94, they said. The Reproduction number, or R, refers to how many people a sick person infects on an average. In other words, it can tell how 'efficiently' a virus is spreading.

The smaller R is than 1, the faster the disease is on decline. Conversely, if R is greater than 1, the number of infected people is increasing in each round - technically, this is what is called the epidemic phase.

The bigger the number is than 1, the faster the rate of spread of the disease in the population. The drop in the R-value comes after the first half of October saw it hovering over 1.

The R-value of the city between September 28 and 30 was 1.03, said the researchers. Between October 10 and 12, the R number for the financial capital was 1.01 and it stood at 1.05 between October 13 and 15, they said. It dropped below 1 between October 16 and 18, said the researchers.

On Monday, Mumbai registered 373 new cases of coronavirus and four fresh fatalities linked to the infection. A day earlier, the metropolis had not recorded any fresh death due to COVID-19 for the first time since the pandemic broke out in March last year though it logged 367 positive cases.