Congress has not recovered from the 2014 Lok Sabha body blow as yet- Interview
The recently concluded assembly elections led to a debate in many circles and that was regarding whether India was moving towards a Congress mukth Bharath. The Congress leadership has spoken about introspection and its supremo Sonia Gandhi even said that failure is temporary.
Will the Congress revive or will the downfall continue. The Congress has not yet recovered from its 2014 defeat in the Lok Sabha polls says Dr Sandeep Shastri, a leading psephologist. In this interview with OneIndia, Dr Shastri says that the Congress needs to get out of the mindset where in it says a defeat is a collective responsibility while in success the credit goes to the high command.
Is India really seeing a Congress mukth Bharath?
The Congress is mukth from power in many stages. The party is at that stage of the political cycle where it is on a decline. They do not seem to have recovered from their 2014 Lok Sabha defeat and since then they have seen failures on a successive basis. The party is on a decline in terms of popularity and positioning.
What does the Congress need to do?
The
party
requires
some
serious
introspection.
It
needs
to
re-strategise
its
approach.
Moreover
it
needs
to
think
whether
it
has
given
enough
say
to
state
leaders
to
take
a
call.
The
other
factor
that
one
needs
to
bear
in
mind
is
that
the
real
Congress
mukth
bharath
would
happen
only
depending
on
their
performance
in
the
states
of
Gujarat
and
Madhya
Pradesh.
In
these
states
the
BJP
has
had
a
very
long
run
and
if
it
cannot
revive
in
these
states
then
it
is
in
serious
trouble.
Is the approach of the party right?
As
I
said
that
they
have
not
recovered
from
body
blow
they
got
in
2014.
It
takes
a
lot
of
introspection
to
change
the
scenario.
The
Congress
culture
has
always
been
,
"
if
they
are
defeated
the
blame
is
collective
and
if
they
win
the
credit
goes
to
the
high
command."
Although
Sonia
and
Rahul
Gandhi
have
said
that
they
take
responsibility
for
the
defeat
of
the
party,
they
do
not
have
any
plan.
For
the
past
two
years
none
have
seen
any
visible
or
viable
road
map
for
the
future.
These elections have also been a come back for the BJP.
Yes the BJP had an electoral drought in 2015. But this year around it has been a harvest. The major take away for the BJP in these elections is the victory in Assam. The rise of the BJP in Kerala is also an important point.
What about verdict in West Bengal?
West Bengal was won on the strength of the Trinamool Congress. Mamata Banerjee is on a honeymoon period and the people were willing to give her another chance. Moreover she is very popular in the rural areas.
What led to the AIDMK winning in Tamil Nadu?
The split in the anti AIDMK votes was one factor that helped Jayalalithaa. The DMK was unable to capitalise on this. Another factor is that the women's vote was high and it became clear that they had voted for the AIDMK.
Do any of these results have a bearing on the Uttar Pradesh election, the next big battle?
Uttar Pradesh is a completely different ball game because of the nature of competition. UP would depend a lot on both alliance arithmetic and alliance chemistry. UP would be a hard fought battle. It would also be a big test for the BJP which will look to sustain its Lok Sabha result in the state.
How critical is it for the BJP to announce a CM candidate in Uttar Pradesh?
Announcing a Chief Ministerial candidate is not critical as much as whom you appoint and what role you give. In Assam they were strategic in announcing the candidate early. They announced a candidate who has a strong base in the grass root levels. In UP they would need to look for someone with a strong base.