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Will the exit poll results be replicated on May 23?

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New Delhi, May 20: Most of the exit polls have predicted Prime Minister Narendra Modi's return to office. Exit polls predictions can be suggestive but never be conclusive. This is because of the inherent limitations in the methodology used to conduct an exit poll survey. Exit poll predictions are based on a sample size, now is the sample considered a true reflection of the population? Experts who design these surveys do their best to ensure that the sample reflects the diversity in actual ppopulation as much as possible, but the errors cannot be ruled out. That said, the surveys cannot be total opposite of the actual outcome.

Will the exit poll results be replicated on May 23?

Surveys show a general trend, the direction of the majority perception and no more. The final numbers may vary. Surveys cannot get the seat shares 100% percent right, to expect that would be foolishness, but what they can suggest is the overall mood of the nation based on the sample they have taken. There were around 900 million voters eligible to cast vote, and considering that 65-67% cast their ballot, the actual number would around 600 million. The sample size of a survey is in lakhs which, no matter how well planned, cannot totally reflect the behaviour of the population. Exit polls suggest a trend, and that is all we should be looking at rather taking them as the final result. Despite all exit poll predictions, the question still hangs whether NDA would get majority or the BJP?

So, what is your say on this matter? Will the BJP get absolute majority on its own? How close do you think the survey predictions will be to the actual outcome? Will it be pre-mature for the BJP supporters to begin celebrating?

Please express your views below:

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