Pakistan's Sharif set to end exile, launch challenge

ISLAMABAD, Sep 7 (Reuters) Just weeks ago, exiled Pakistani former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was stuck on the sidelines of Pakistani politics but he now looks set to go home a hero to many, to challenge the military ruler who ousted him.

Sharif, 57, has been thrust into the spotlight by events he had little to do with but which have reinvigorated a roller-coaster political career long dogged by accusations of corruption.

Sharif aims to return to Pakistan on Monday, despite the possibility of arrest on old graft charges, to mount a campaign to end the rule of President Pervez Musharraf, the army chief who ousted him in 1999.

''Mr Sharif presents a huge challenge to Musharraf,'' said former senator and political analyst Shafqat Mahmood.

The Supreme Court, fresh from a bruising tussle with Musharraf over its top judge, threw Sharif a lifeline on Aug.

23.

Headed by the judge who General Musharraf tried unsuccessfully to fire in March, the court ruled on a petition filed by Sharif and said he had an inalienable right to come back, and the government shouldn't try to stop him.

The timing could not be worse for Musharraf.

His popularity sliding since he tried to fire the Supreme Court chief, Musharraf is preparing to seek re-election by the national and provincial assemblies and to hold parliamentary elections around the end of the year.

His ruling party was cobbled together from the remnants of Sharif's party, and the reappearance of the old leader could trigger more defections from Musharraf's political base that has already shown signs of disintegrating.

Musharraf is also negotiating a power-sharing deal with another former prime minister in exile, Benazir Bhutto, who has come in for criticism from some in her party, Sharif and the public for negotiating with the unpopular general.

But she is insisting the deal with Musharraf will mean he gives up his post of army chief, for which she can take credit.

The last thing either needs is for Sharif, who was helped early in his career by ties to a military dictator, to return portraying himself as the sole challenger of military rule, drawing huge crowds in the run-up to a general election.

''Musharraf is very unpopular and Sharif's popularity has soared because of his rejectionist stance against Musharraf,'' said Mahmood.

''There's no doubt he's emerging as a symbol of resistance to Musharraf at a time when a lot of anti-Musharraf sentiments are prevailing,'' said another political analyst, Hasan Askari Rizvi.

Pakistan's Western allies will be hoping the looming confrontation does not bring turmoil to the nuclear-armed country on the front line of global efforts to fight terrorism.

ARREST OR FREE HAND? The government has tried to press Sharif to stick to an agreement the government says he struck in 2000 to go into exile in Saudi Arabia and avoid a life sentence on hijacking and corruption charges.

The government says the deal was guaranteed by Saudi leaders. An unidentified Saudi official said in a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency this week: ''Wisdom demands that Mr Nawaz Sharif commit himself to the promises he made.'' But backing out of his vow to return after raising the hopes of his supporters would cost him hugely politically, and he appears willing to bear any diplomatic cost.

Sharif, who is in London, is due to announce his travel plans tomorrow.

He intends to fly to Islamabad, with his politician brother Shahbaz, who also faces charges, before setting off the 300 km (190 miles) to Lahore, his hometown, the capital of Punjab province and the country's political nerve centre.

''Deportation doesn't appear to be an option but the government has not yet decided whether to arrest him or give him a free hand.'' said another analyst, Nasim Zehra.

Mahmood said Sharif would probably be arrested upon arrival in connection with three corruption cases an anti-graft court reopened at the request of the government last month.

But his detention will likely be brief, he said.

''If the courts interpret the law correctly, there's no way you can deny bail to people charged with these offences.'' REUTERS ARB DS1127