Canada election talk resurfaces on Kyoto, Afghans

OTTAWA, Aug 23 (Reuters) The possibility of an early Canadian election simmered back to the surface today, although the leader of the opposition insisted he was not threatening to topple the minority Conservative government.

The widespread assumption over the summer was that the Conservative government, elected in January 2006, was pretty safe until next spring at least, when Parliament votes on the 2008 budget.

But Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been mulling suspending the current session of Parliament and opening a new session with a ''speech from the throne'' setting out government policies.

If Parliament votes that speech down, the government falls, and there is a new federal election.

''Everybody knows that the risk of the election is going up, (in such a scenario), because who will support the throne speech is unknown,'' said Stephane Dion, leader of the Liberal Party, the largest opposition group.

However, most analysts say none of the major political parties -- especially not the Conservatives and Liberals -- is eager to risk an early election because opinion polls don't point to a clear win for any party.

The Conservatives would need the support of at least one other party on a throne speech vote to stay in power.

''Everybody knows there is the possibility one day of a confidence motion or a confidence vote, that the government may be defeated, but I'm not saying today that is what I want,'' Dion told reporters.

Flashpoints that could galvanize the three opposition parties include government plans to fight climate change and the military mission in Afghanistan, where 69 Canadian soldiers have been killed since 2002, three of them in the last week.

Dion said that if Harper does suspend the parliamentary session he must revive the Clean Air Act, legislation which the opposition hardened to commit Canada to sticking to the Kyoto protocol on climate change.

The government has essentially abandoned the legislation, arguing that meeting Kyoto targets on greenhouse gas emission would be too costly.

Dion implied that the Liberals would vote against the throne speech if this bill was killed, but also insisted he was ''not here to make threats.'' The leader of the second largest opposition party, the Bloc Quebecois' Gilles Duceppe, said he would seek to amend a throne speech to include a pledge to pull Canadian troops out of Afghanistan by February 2009.

Harper has pledged to let Parliament decide whether Canadian troops stay in Afghanistan beyond that date, but has so far declined to put the issue to the legislature.

Dion avoided saying whether he would back Duceppe on the issue, saying he preferred a government declaration now. The left-leaning New Democrats have called for an immediate withdrawal of troops rather than waiting another 18 months.

If Harper does suspend Parliament, Ottawa pundits assume a throne speech would be in mid-October, followed by a vote in the following days. Defeat of the throne speech could mean an election in late November or early December.

REUTERS AK BST0156