Britain's Brown enjoys poll lead on back of crises

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) New British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has led his Labour Party to its biggest poll lead over the opposition since before the Iraq war, a survey showed today.

Brown, who succeeded Tony Blair on June 27, has helped give Labour a 10-point lead over the Conservative Party, a YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showed.

The poll, and another in the Sunday Mirror also showing Labour ahead, coincides with a slump in the Conservatives' fortunes and will fuel speculation that Brown will call a general election later this year or next.

Over past weeks, Labour has enjoyed a consistent poll lead that suggests more than just a bounce, commentators said.

''The lead is clearly real,'' said YouGov chairman and political analyst Peter Kellner. ''There is the possibility there that this will be more sustained rather than a short honeymoon.'' Brown must call an election by 2010. Before he took over, most analysts expected the next election to be in 2009.

''If polls remain at the current level for the next five weeks then I think he has the option of going early,'' said Kellner, referring to a possible vote later this year or 2008.

''Whether he exercises that option is a political judgment.'' Many analysts, however, note Brown's characteristic caution and do not expect him to rush to seek a mandate after waiting more than a decade to succeed Blair.

YouGov put Labour up two points from last month at 42 per cent with the Conservatives down one point at 32 per cent. The Liberal Democrats, the third largest party, polled 14 per cent.

The lead is Labour's biggest in a YouGov survey since November 2002, before Blair's decision to back the US-led Iraq war prompted a collapse in support for the ruling party.

If Britons voted at an election along the lines of the YouGov poll, Brown would add about 100 seats to the 66-seat majority Labour won at the 2005 election, Kellner said.

PRAISE FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT In a second poll by ICM for the Sunday Mirror, Labour scored a six-point lead over the Conservatives, polling 39 per cent against 33 per cent. The Liberal Democrats were on 18 per cent.

Brown won approval in both polls for his handling of a recent outbreak of foot and mouth disease among cattle. He has also had to deal with a flooding crisis and attempted car bomb attacks in London and Glasgow since he took over.

Foot and mouth, which caused major damage to British farming and tourism in 2001, has been confirmed on two farms in Surrey, southern England, but appears to have been contained.

Brown cut short a vacation to return to London and oversee the response to the outbreak, which more than three quarters of those polled by YouGov said Brown was handling well.

The Conservatives led Labour in polls before Brown took over but a number of public relations gaffes by Cameron and party infighting over his modernising agenda has eroded support.

''Cameron had looked like a viable prime minister to many people until about six weeks ago. He suddenly looks lightweight,'' said Kellner.

Capturing the headlines, the Conservatives on Sunday laid out draft proposals to slash red tape and regulation that the party said could save British business 14 billion pounds (28.32 billion dollars). The lawmaker who drafted the plans said they were akin to a tax cut.

Labour accused the Conservatives of lurching back to a right-wing tax-cutting agenda in the wake of poor poll results.

REUTERS JT BST1826