Rigged polls could spur Pakistan violence -think-tank

ISLAMABAD, July 31 (Reuters) Any attempt to rig forthcoming elections in Pakistan could lead to a violent confrontation between the government of US ally President Pervez Musharraf and its opponents, a think-tank warned today.

Musharraf, who seized power in a military coup eight years ago, is under growing international pressure to ensure polls due later this year or in early 2008 are free and fair. The last elections, held in 2002 and which brought Musharraf's allies to power, were widely believed to be rigged.

''Another stolen election would be strongly resisted by the opposition parties and civil society and could possibly lead to a violent confrontation between the military and protesters,'' the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a report on Pakistan's political situation.

The ICG called on the United States to persuade Musharraf, who is also army chief, and his fellow generals to return to barracks and accept a democratic transition through free polls.

''A free, fair and transparent election this year is the first, necessary step in peaceful political transition that is needed to bring Pakistan to moderate, democratic moorings.'' Musharraf has said elections would be free but a controversy is already brewing after opposition parties said millions of citizens were missing from provisional electoral lists released by the election commission.

The Supreme Court last week directed the commission to devise a mechanism to ensure all eligible voters were enrolled.

Musharraf is undergoing the weakest phase of his rule after the Supreme Court earlier this month reinstated the country's chief justice, whom Musharraf tried to sack in March.

Many analysts believe his move was motivated by fears the judge would block his attempt to seek a second term in office from the sitting assembles while remaining in army unform.

Musharraf -- also facing security problems as Pakistan suffers from bomb and suicide attacks by Islamist militants after a bloody army assault on Islamabad's radical Lal Masjid or Red Mosque -- last week held secret talks with exiled former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in an effort to reach a power-sharing pact.

The ICG said Musharraf might retain some legitimacy by striking a deal with Bhutto. However, their report said, this option might not be viable as other political parties were against assigning any role to Musharraf.

Reuters JT DB2251