Expectations low for Asia's top security summit

MANILA, July 27 (Reuters) Southeast Asia hosts its annual security summit with world powers next week, with little expectation of reviving up progress on North Korea in the absence of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Washington's top foreign affairs official is missing Asia Pacific's main security meeting to travel to the West Asia and her no-show, following President George Bush's decision to skip a forum in Singapore in September, reflects Southeast Asia's meagre influence on regional security.

The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which consists of foreign ministers from the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and counterparts from 16 other countries and the EU, was founded in 1994 to promote cooperation in a region riven by suspicion due to lingering territorial and historical disputes.

But ASEAN principles of consensus and non-interference have prevented the ARF from developing beyond an annual talk shop, more famous for getting foreign ministers to perform whacky stage shows than making breakthroughs on regional problems.

''The ASEAN leadership of ARF undermines its institutional strength,'' said Malcolm Cook, programme director for Asia Pacific at the Lowy Institute. ''It's like the tail wagging the dog.'' This year's summit, which is being hosted by the Philippines in Manila, will endorse the concept of a rapid response team of three ASEAN foreign ministers and one non-ASEAN minister to deal with potential crises in the region.

But the same mechanism exists within ASEAN itself and is rarely used.

A Japanese diplomat said Tokyo welcomed the creation of a mechanism to deal with regional crises, but admitted that agreeing a united response among such an unwieldy grouping would be difficult.

''Obviously, all countries concerned, not just some, need to be firmly united to respond to emergencies affecting the region. That's not always easy, but we all should aim for that.'' CHANCE TO TALK ARF and ASEAN's biggest contribution to regional security is the venue they offer leaders to talk, negotiate and size each other up.

China and Japan used January's ASEAN summit in the central Philippines to further thaw frosty relations.

Rice, who also skipped an ARF meeting in 2005, is sending John Negroponte, a deputy secretary of state, to represent her in Manila but his reports will be no substitute for direct contact.

''By Rice not going, Washington is missing an opportunity to test North Korea's intentions,'' said Peter Beck, Seoul-based director for the International Crisis Group, a think-tank.

''It's the best opportunity for the leaders to meet in an informal, minimal pressure situation.'' Prior to the ARF summit on Aug. 2, ASEAN will agree the first draft of a mini-constitution that will, for the first time in its 40 year history, set specific standards on the bloc, including the protection of human rights.

But specific sanctions are unlikely to be spelled out and critics doubt whether the charter will have much of an impact on Myanmar's junta, whose persecution of minorities and opposition groups has embarrassed its neighbours.

ARF will reiterate its concern over the slow progress towards democracy in Myanmar, according to a draft of the chairman's statement, seen by Reuters.

Foreign ministers will also stress their support for six-party talks on North Korea, warn that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction remains a serious security challenge and call for greater cooperation on energy security.

They will also agree that countries should be transparent about reporting bird flu cases, quickly share data on the virus and intervene early to contain outbreaks.

But mainly, they will talk; about Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, the West Asia and pressing regional concerns.

''If all they deliver is the ability for leaders and senior officials to talk then I think that's more important today than it was 10 years ago,'' said Cook.

''East Asia's strategic environment is changing quite quickly and the countries don't necessarily trust each other a lot.'' REUTERS AE ND1056