Overseas voting starts in French parliament polls

PARIS, June 16 (Reuters) Voting began today in some overseas French territories in the final round of parliamentary elections expected to give conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy a big majority for his reform plans.

Final opinion polls suggested the left might perform better than expected after putting conservative Prime Minister Francois Fillon on the defensive over plans to increase value added tax.

Sarkozy, who defeated Socialist Segolene Royal to win the presidency last month, has urged voters to give him a powerful majority in parliament to allow him to implement campaign pledges to cut tax, boost the economy and slash unemployment.

The tiny islands of St Pierre and Miquelon off Canada's eastern coast got the run-offs under way, and a million French nationals in overseas territories, the Americas and French Polynesia were eligible to vote a day before mainland France.

Polling in the mainland starts at 1300hrs tomorrow and ends at 2300 hrs, when the first television projections of the outcome will be known.

Turnout and the mood of moderates voters could determine the size of the pro-Sarkozy bloc -- and the fate of a handful of senior Socialists whose seats are under threat from the looming conservative ''blue tide.'' ''Only the mobilisation of abstentionists in tomorrow's second round will allow the scale of the debacle facing the left to be limited,'' said the left-leaning newspaper Liberation.

Abstentions were 39 per cent a week ago, against just 16 percent in the presidential election, a record blamed on voter fatigue after two months of electioneering and a widely-held belief the centre-right would triumph.

VAT GAFFE The Le Monde daily said the result of the Socialists, riven by splits since their third straight loss in presidential elections this spring, depended on whether centrists shunned the polls or voted with the left to curb the right's majority.

Francois Bayrou, who came third in this year's presidential election, rebuffed overtures from Royal and refused to urge his supporters to vote against right-wing candidates.

The conservative newspaper Le Figaro said Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) aimed to boost its haul from 359 seats to more than 400, but said its mishandling of a proposed VAT increase could limit its triumph.

Sarkozy's government is considering an increase in VAT to fund a reduction in employers' social security contributions, a move it says will help stop jobs moving abroad. The left says it will hit the poor hardest and is another tax break for the rich.

An Ipsos/Dell poll released today estimated the UMP and its centre-right associates would win 380-420 seats. Other institutes have put the figure at up to 463 seats.

The previous Ipsos survey gave the UMP 401-436 seats and suggested the left had struck a chord with voters over the VAT row and its warnings a large majority would give Sarkozy unfettered power to push through radical reforms.

Ipsos estimated the Socialists and their allies would get 153-195 seats, compared to 149 seats in the outgoing assembly.

Polls suggest independent centrists and extremist parties will be squeezed badly. Bayrou's Democratic Movement is expected to win just two to three seats, the Greens 2-4, the Communists up to 16 and the far-right National Front none.

Reuters GT RN2233