Japan sees first birth-rate rise in 6 years: Paper

Tokyo, May 30: Japan, burdened with a shrinking and ageing population, saw its birth-rate rise for the first time in six years in 2006 partly because of an economic upturn, a newspaper reported today.

Japan's birth-rate is among the lowest in the world, raising concerns about the economy"s growth potential and the government"s ability to fund ballooning pension requirements.

The fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, appears to have risen to 1.31 in 2006 from a record low of 1.26 in 2005, the Nikkei business daily said.

Health Ministry officials would not confirm the report, saying the data would be released next month.

A fertility rate of 2.07 is needed to keep a population from falling, but Japan's rate has steadily remained below that level since 1974.

The number of babies born in the country in 2006 increased by 2.9 per cent from a year earlier to 1,122,278, in part due to an economic recovery, the Nikkei said. The number of marriages in 2006 also rose by 2.4 per cent from a year earlier to 748,017.

The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, a research arm of the Health Ministry, said in December Japan's fertility rate was expected to have increased to 1.29 in 2006. But it also said the rate was expected to start dropping again from 2007.

In a report released yesterday, the institute said almost half of Japan"s 47 prefectures would see their populations fall by more than 20 percent over the three decades from 2005.

Tokyo and Okinawa, Japan's southernmost main island, were the only prefectures that were expected to see their populations rise over those three decades.

With jobseekers flocking to the capital, Tokyo is expected to account for 11.5 per cent of Japan's total population in 2035, up from 9.8 per cent in 2005, the institute said.

Japan's population now stands at about 127 million, with the world"s highest proportion of old people and lowest proportion of young people. It declined in 2005 for the first time since 1945.

Experts had long forecast the shift, but it came two years earlier than expected.

The institute said Japan's population was expected to fall to 110,680,000 in 2035, and 89,930,000 in 2055.

The government has warned that the shortage of children could hurt Japan"s economic growth prospects and lead to higher social welfare costs for individuals.

Reuters>