Taiwan air force loses ground to rival China

TAIPEI, May 29 (Reuters) The military balance across the Taiwan Strait is continuing to shift in China's favour, with Taiwan fast losing ground to its diplomatic rival in its last remaining area of dominance -- in the air.

The Pentagon's annual report on China released last week highlighted Beijing's efforts to modernise its air force and navy, aimed largely at military contingencies against Taiwan, but also further afield.

Communist China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since the end of the civil war in 1949 and vows to bring the self-governed democracy back under mainland rule, if necessary by force.

Beijing backs up its threats by aiming nearly 1,000 missiles at Taiwan, according to the Taiwan government's estimate.

Analysts say Taiwan still maintains a slight qualitative edge in terms of aircraft and pilot training, but add that the gap has narrowed sharply due to partisan bickering in Taipei that has put new jet acquisitions on ice for more than a decade.

A string of training accidents has highlighted the advanced age of many aircraft, leading some to question how long the island can maintain its aerial advantage over China. A fighter jet crashed during exercises earlier this month, killing two crew and five soldiers on the ground.

''The gap is closing quickly,'' said Randall G Schriver, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. ''Air superiority not only protects Taiwan from air strikes, it is also key to preventing naval incursions ... and prevents against amphibious landing.'' The People's Liberation Army (PLA) now has more than 700 aircraft capable of conducting combat operations against Taiwan without refuelling, according to the Pentagon's 2007 report on China's military power.

Still, much of that is based on 1950s Soviet technology, including Mig-19 and Mig-21 jets, analysts say.

''The PLA air force right now has superiority in quantity, but their training is not as good as Taiwan pilots, who fly around 15 hours per month. The PLA only fly 5 hours per month,'' said Eric Shih, chief convener at Defence International magazine in Taipei.

The slip in Taiwan's air dominance comes after the island has already lost its edge on land. Taiwan's ground forces are now outnumbered by China's army by more than 10-to-1, the Pentagon report shows.

Taiwan's premier naval vessels include four US-made Kidd class destroyers, but even they are outgunned 6-to-1 by the Chinese equivalent, the report says. Underwater, Taiwan's fleet of four ageing subs is outnumbered by almost 60 for China.

Even the Taiwan defence department has expressed concern at the narrowing gap, without directly mentioning air power.

Earlier this year, China unveiled its advanced Jian-10 multirole indigenous fighter jet, with plans to produce 1,200 of the aircraft, according to previous Pentagon estimates.

''Not only does the J-10 pose a risk to the Russian fighter export market, but it considerably boosts the Chinese air force's tactical offensive capabilities, especially vis-a-vis Taiwan,'' said GlobalSecurity.org on its Web site.

The site estimates that by 2005 China had 200 Russian-made Su-30s and 180 Su-27s. It also had a co-production agreement with Russia to build its own version of the Su-27, known as the J-11.

Taiwan counters China's threat with around 150 US-made F-16s, 56 French-supplied Mirage 2000s, 130 Indigenous Defence Fighters (IDFs) and 60 or so 1970s-era F-5s.

While the numbers are moving in China's direction, Taiwan is bolstered by the implicit assistance of the United States.

The United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, recognising ''one China'', but is obliged by the Taiwan Relations Act to help the island defend itself and is its biggest arms supplier.

Taiwan's military wants to buy more advanced fighters for its air force, but has been stalled by partisan government bickering.

Washington has denied its request to buy 60 more F-16s to replace the IDFs and F-5s due to parliament's repeated failure to pass a budget for a US weapons package first offered in 2001.

Opposition lawmakers said the original 18 billion dollar budget was hugely inflated and some weapons offered were too provocative.

At the same time the defence ministry's budget has steadily declined as a real percentage of GDP, endangering existing weaponry by reducing funds available for maintenance.

''If more than 50 per cent of the money goes to personnel, then how much is left for maintenance?'' said Arthur Ding, a politics research fellow at National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations.

REUTERS SBC SSC1333