Leading Oscar forecasters lose their mojo

LOS ANGELES, Feb 26 (Reuters) Some key Oscar barometers were a little cracked this year.

For the third year in a row, the winner of the Producers Guild of America Awards did not go on to take the best picture Oscar, a potentially costly miss for a lot of people in office betting pools.

In its first 15 years, 11 of the Guild's top picks went on to win the Oscar. But the group faltered in both 2005 and 2006. Then, this year, its 18th, it picked ''Little Miss Sunshine,'' while the Academy Award went to ''The Departed.'' The Golden Globes' reputation as bellwether also was tarnished.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Assn.'s choice for best musical/comedy was ''Dreamgirls,'' which did not even get a best picture Oscar nomination, while ''Babel'' was named best drama.

The Directors Guild of America got it right, for the 53rd time in 59 years, choosing Martin Scorsese for ''The Departed.'' Scorsese also won the directing Globe.

The Critics Choice Awards, an increasingly reliable prognosticator, went with ''The Departed'' and Scorsese. They also predicted three out of four acting Oscar winners: Forest Whitaker (''The Last King of Scotland''), Helen Mirren (''The Queen'' and Jennifer Hudson (''Dreamgirls'').

They erred with ''Dreamgirls'' star Eddie Murphy, who lost the supporting actor race to Alan Arkin for ''Little Miss Sunshine.'' The Critics Choice Awards are organized by the Broadcast Film Critics Assn.

Whitaker, Mirren, Hudson and Murphy also won Screen Actors Guild Awards and Golden Globes, although the Globes hedge their bets by dividing the lead acting races into drama and comedy/musical. The latter category was won by ''Borat'' star Sacha Baron Cohen, who did not get an Oscar acting nomination, and ''The Devil Wears Prada'' villain Meryl Streep, who did.

As for various metropolitan critics groups, the Chicago Films Critics Assn. got the Scorsese/''Departed'' double. The new York Film Critics Circle also went with hometown hero Scorsese, but chose ''United 93'' for best picture. The Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.

voted for ''United 93'' director Paul Greengrass, and ''Letters from Iwo Jima.'' REUTERS SHB PM1333