French centrist's rise complicates Royal's bid

By Staff
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Google Oneindia News

PARIS, Feb 20 (Reuters) Centrist candidate Francois Bayrou is transforming himself from also-ran to rapidly rising third man in France's presidential campaign, posing a growing threat to Socialist Segolene Royal as her campaign falters.

Royal, the first woman to have a serious chance of capturing the presidency, has trailed conservative front-runner Nicolas Sarkozy for weeks but Bayrou's steady ascent has sparked fresh alarm in her camp.

The Socialist has struggled to explain away several embarrassing gaffes and internal disputes in past weeks, allowing Bayrou to quietly close the gap on her from 25 points in December to just seven points in a survey this week.

''The principal danger for Segolene Royal today is Francois Bayrou,'' said Francois Miquet-Marty from pollster LH2.

Bayrou may not be just a threat to Royal. One poll shows that if he ends in the top two following the first round of the vote on April 22 he would beat either her or Sarkozy in the second round on May 6.

About one fifth of left-wing voters who supported defeated Socialist Lionel Jospin in the 2002 presidential race say they want to vote for Bayrou this time, Miquet-Marty said.

Analysts said Royal had scored some points in a television debate on Monday watched by a record 8.9 million people, but they questioned whether that was enough to convince left-wingers toying with a Bayrou vote.

''Did she show she would be a good president?'' asked Jerome Sainte-Marie of pollster BVA following the show. ''Neither the form of the broadcast nor her way of managing it strengthened that idea compared to before,'' he said.

VOCAL OPPONENT In the broadcast Royal reiterated traditional left-wing policies such as a hike in low pensions and the minimum wage, but she also defended her plan to send young troublemakers to army camp -- a proposal some call ''non-Socialist''.

Analysts say many left-wing voters disappointed by Royal's campaign style and policy programme see Bayrou as the person best able to embody a change from the ruling right.

Although Bayrou's Union for French Democracy (UDF) party is aligned with the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party in parliament, Bayrou has been a vocal opponent of Sarkozy.

He has vowed to cut labour charges and slash red tape, saying France needs a coalition from across the political spectrum to tackle reform. He has said he could name a left-wing prime minister if elected.

Some 16 per cent of French voters would support Bayrou in the first round, an Ipsos poll showed on Monday -- a doubling of his November rating. Findings by a separate Ifop survey that he could win in the second round could induce more left-leaning voters to back Bayrou, Sainte-Marie said.

Should the centrist consolidate his current standing, he will have become the election's ''third man'' ahead of far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, who was the last man to stun France by snatching second place in the 2002 race from Jospin.

Le Pen indicated this week he may not make this year's contest as he remains short of the 500 mayors' signatures he needs to register.

REUTERS ms rk2059

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