Why did Congress perish in Gujarat?

The party suffers from ideological deficit. In order to make-up for this deficiency, Rahul Gandhi draws heavily from Communist lexicon, which hardly has any takers. There's obviously something intrinsically wrong with the party's leadership and the narrative it's pursuing.

Newspapers have explained in depth Bharatiya Janata Party's smashing victory in Gujarat Assembly polls. Commentators have rightly attributed the unprecedented win to Narendra Modi's charisma, his special connect with the state, party's poll strategy and the State government's performance in the preceding years. Surprisingly, there's hardly any explanation for Congress' pathetic performance in the State where it's in Opposition for the last 27 years.

Masses may have had reasons to favour or reject BJP - depending on their assessment of its performance while in office. But why did the voters punish Congress so harshly in Gujarat? Out of office for decades, Congress was in no position to annoy any section of voters. Still, it managed to alienate the electorate to the extent that - many of its candidates lost their deposits. The party's voting percentage dropped from 41.44 per cent (2017) to 27.28 per cent, and the number of seats from 77 to 17.

While Congress decline in Gujarat was shocking, what possibly can explain its total collapse in Delhi? The party's victory in Himachal too was not convincing either. Though the State has a long tradition of alternating between BJP and Congress every five years, the latter's performance was disappointing. The difference between the winner and loser was less than one per cent. In Himachal's context, it can be said that BJP, though second in the electoral race, is the real winner.

The 'split in anti-BJP votes' argument can't explain Congress decimation in Gujarat. There's obviously something intrinsically wrong with the party's leadership and the narrative it's pursuing. Rahul Gandhi addressed three election rallies in the State and sought to set the narrative, to be followed by the party in the polls. It lost all the three - including two tribal ones, with unprecedented margins!

Congress suffers from ideological deficit. In order to make-up for this deficiency, Rahul draws heavily from Communist lexicon, which hardly has any takers, either in India or in the rest of the world. His uncalled for comments during the crucial poll period, terming Veer Savarkar as a 'British lackey' and calling non-tribals as some sort of usurpers in India, reeked of Marxist toxicity. Both of these comments were completely divorced from traditional Congress wisdom, historically wrong and bad politics.

Medha Patkar joining the Bharat Jodo Yatra further underlined Rahul's disconnect with reality. She is a hated figure in the State, personifying all that's rotten in Indian public life. Abusive comments against PM Modi such as "aukat" and "Raavan" alienated the voters further. An average voter identifies Modi with Gujarati 'asmita' (pride). They voted with vengeance for BJP to avenge the insult.

Launching his party's election campaign from the tribal district of Dahod on May 10, Rahul said, "Today, two India's are being created, one India of the rich, a few select people, billionaires, and bureaucrats who have power and money. The second India is of the common people... In the BJP model, resources of people like water, forest and land which belong to tribals and other poor people, are being given to a few."

In a subsequent meeting at the tribal-dominated Mahuva reserved constituency, he said that his party treated Adivasis as the "first owners of the country" while the BJP called them 'Vanvasis' and "snatched their land to give them to industrialists". He credited late Indira Gandhi for teaching him that the Adivasis were the "first 'malik' (owners) of this country".

If the tribals are the real owners of Gujarat and rest of India, what's the status of non-tribals? Are they outsiders, exploiting the 'real owners', as Rahul alleged? Gujarat is a State where hard work, prosperity and entrepreneurial skills are respected. Ambani and Adani, Rahul's frequent punching bags, are inspirational figures. They are seen as wealth creators who have made the State proud. Along with rest of the voters, including tribals who Rahul was trying to humour, rejected his divisive propaganda.

The Congress lost all the three seats, which Rahul had campaigned in - with an increased margin. In 2017, BJP had won Mahuva (Surat) ST reserved seat with a margin of 6,433 votes, and this time, by 31,508 votes. In Dahod too, the BJP victory margin had nearly doubled, from 15,503 to 29,350 votes. It was a repeat story in Mahuva (Rajkot). BJP's victory margin had gone up six times more from 5,009 to 30,472 votes in 2022.

In fact, BJP won an unprecedented 24 out of 27 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs), while the Congress won two seats and the AAP one. The ruling party made inroads into a Congress stronghold, where the Congress had won 15 ST reserved seats in 2017 while the BJP had won nine. So complete was Congress' alienation from the tribals that in seven reserved constituencies - Morva Hadaf, Fatepura, Jhalod, Limkheda, Jetpur, Vyara and Dharampur, the AAP dislodged the Congress from the second spot.

By extending overwhelming support for the BJP in this election, the voters have unambiguously endorsed the Gujarat model, derisively termed as 'the laboratory of Hindutva' by Modi detractors. Roughly put, the model is an aggregate of good governance, social justice, inclusive development, respect for Indian traditions and Gujarati pride.

AAP, which ran a high-decibel campaign in Gujarat, peddling its Delhi model of free paani-bijli and mohalla clinics, bled the Congress and not the BJP. In Himachal, the party campaigned heavily all across the State with 'Ek Mauka Kejriwal ko...' as its slogan. However, voters didn't take Kejriwal seriously. Not only were all his candidates defeated in the polls, many of them even lost to NOTA on 24 seats.

Though Congress is going to form the government in Himachal, the real winner no doubt is BJP. The party had two clear disadvantages compared to Congress - anti-incumbency and its principled stand on pension to government servants. In spite of these two handicaps, the party still managed to garner 18,14,530 votes, just 37,974 less than Congress.

One of the major promises of the Congress party ahead of polls was to restore the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) in the State. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has notified its poll promise in Punjab to switch to the Old Pension Scheme. The employees' votes are crucial for any political party to win a majority in Himachal.

Over 2.25 lakh individuals are employed with the Himachal Pradesh government, and there are about 1.90 lakh pensioners. The electorate is not more than 55 lakh. Along with their dependents, these employees account for 10%-15% of the total number of voters in the State. Obviously, on this crucial issue, most of the government employees and their dependents would support those who promise them restoration of OPS.

However, bringing back OPS would be an economic disaster. During the year ending March 31, 2021, the committed expenditure of the state - which comprises interest payments, expenditure on salaries and wages, and pensions - had increased from Rs 17,154.75 crore in 2016-17 to Rs 22,464.51 crore in 2020-21. As a percentage of the revenue receipts, the committed expenditure has increased from 65.31 per cent to 67.19 per cent over the last five years. It means that lesser money is available with the State for development.

In Gujarat, AAP was nowhere near what it claimed it would be. In Himachal, it failed to register even its presence, in spite of tall claims. In Delhi, though, AAP managed to dislodge BJP from MCD after 15 years, its vote percentage dropped from 53.5 per cent in 2020 assembly elections to 42.1 per cent in 2022.

What are the takeaways from these elections? One, with every passing day, Modi's appeal, cutting across castes and regions, is increasing. Two, Rahul Gandhi continues to be a prisoner of Communist shibboleth with disastrous results for his party. Three, the returns from Kejriwal's shape-shifting have reached a tether's end.

(Mr. Balbir Punj is a Former Member of Parliament and a Columnist. He can be reached at: [email protected])

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.