Karnataka elections: Is it time to write off the JD(S) yet?

Since the 2008 elections, the news outlets have written extensively on the election would be a battle of survival for the JD(S). But is it time to write off the family party as yet?

Bengaluru, Jan 16: The Janata Dal (S) is referred to as the family party of Karnataka. With the Karnataka Assembly elections coming up, all eyes would be on H D Deve Gowda's party and the question is will the JD(S) survive another election or will again end up playing kingmaker.

Currently, Gowda's son and former Chief Minister of Karnataka, H D Kumaraswamy is running a one man show. He is the face of the party with Deve Gowda taking a backseat.

This time the party has set a target of 123 seats to form the government independently. The party has been invoking Kannadiga pride while seeking votes in a bid to win the 224 member assembly. 123 however looks like an ambitious number considering the highest number of seats the JD(S) has ever won was 58 in the 2004 elections. At that time, the party had formed the government with the Congress with N Dharam Singh at the helm.

It is interesting to note that the JD(S) has never formed a government on its own. However it has been in power thrice in a coalition with both the Congress and the BJP. First it was with the Congress in 2004, following which Kumaraswamy broke away and formed the government with the BJP. Once again in 2018 the JD(S) and Congress came together and formed the government, however the government fell paving the way for the BJP to come to power.

In the 2018 elections, the party had put up a performance which was above everyone's expectations. The party ended up with 37 seats, three lesser than its 2013 tally. The party foxed the Congress in the Old Mysuru region by bagging a large chunk of the Vokkaliga votes.

A JD(S) functionary quoted by news agency PTI said that they are confident of performing better than last time. We will win more seats this time and will psh Kumaraswamy to become the Chief Minister, However we will be more cautious this time and bargain better for a better alliance partner after last time's bad experience he also said.

The party's vote share has been a consistent 18-20 per cent. It manages to win most of its seats in the Old Mysuru Region which is dominated by the Vokkaliga community. This region along accounts for 61 seats.

Whatever the outcome of the election may be, political analysts tell OneIndia that there is no writing off the JD(S). As long as they hold sway in Vokkaliga dominant belts, they will spoil the party for one party or the other.

Other experts feel that the fact that the party is family centric is what is causing desertions. One of the biggest example of desertion was Siddaramaiah himself. Once a loyal leader in the JD(S), upset over the family dominance, he quit to join the Congress.

The family tree:

Deve Gowda is a member of the Rajya Sabha, while his son Kumaraswamy is a two-time CM and an MLA from Channapatna. HIs wide Anitha is an MLA from Ramanagar while his son, Nikhil Kumaraswamy is the youth wing president of the JD(S).

Kumaraswamy's brother H D Revanna is an MLA from Holenarasipura, while his wife Bhavani Revanna has been a member of the Hassan Zilla Panchayat. Their sons Prajwal and Suraj are MP from Hassan and an MLC respectively.

This is a clear indicator that the family has represented the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, Legislative Assembly and the Council.

During a recent webinar, James Manor a University of London professor and a keen observer of Karnataka politics had said that family centric politics is what is leading to the desertions in the party.

Manor had also said about Gowda, that his emotional pleas for votes may attract more Vokkaliga votes than Congress strongman D K Shivakumar who also hails from the same community. Moreover the Vokkaligas resent Siddaramaiah's emphasis on the minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Perhaps the party may not do all that badly and if it does somewhat well, it would be bad news for the Congress, he also said.

News agency PTI in a report said that the JD(S) inability to grow beyond the Vokkaliga dominated Old Mysuru. Region, other than in certain other pockets of north Karnataka is a major drawback for the party. This also explains why the vote share has neither increased or shrunk.

Will the party survive the elections in 2023. Well since 2008 before every election the news outlets have always reported that this time it would be a battle for survival for the JD(S). In 2018, it formed the government with the government although it had only 37 seats.