Is Pakistan heading towards a civil war?

While the top political leadership and army are busy in power struggle, a tanking economy, backbreaking inflation, massive unemployment and sporadic violence have further added to the woes of the common man who continues to seek comfort in Islamic mores.

What will happen in Pakistan? Is it heading towards a civil war? Will it suffer another breakup the way it had during 1971? Certain unprecedented events that have shaken the Islamic state in the preceding few months have given rise to all sorts of speculations.

After long, Pakistan has seen rise of a popular leader of stature of Imran Khan who has stood up to the all-powerful army - the only stable institution in an otherwise volatile country.

The possibility of a civil war was mentioned by Prime Minister Shehbaz during a recent press conference in Lahore. Imran Khan, on a warpath against the establishment, too has repeatedly warned about such an ominous possibility. Following a failed assassination attempt on his life, violence has already broken out in different parts of the country. Is there a parallel between the present strained situation, and in the events leading to army crackdown in East Pakistan, in 1971, resulting in balkanisation of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh?

Ironically, in this fight to finish war, there are no high principles involved or differences on policy issues. The main characters of this toxic drama -- Sharif brothers and Imran Khan -- are past products of army's political nursery. Both the rivals, and the army have slept with, and betrayed each other, at different times, depending on the exigencies of a given situation.

The army chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa, the Sharif brothers and Khan are all trying to get their favourite as the next army chief. They all accept that army would continue to play a central role in Pakistan's public life and are working for its support to get and retain power. In spite of their present enmity, they have, however, one thing in common - hate for India - a sentiment that runs deep in the Islamic nation's eco-system and raison d' etre for its existence.

Heavily embroiled in competitive politics, and to garner public support, Khan has been promising to the people, a utopian medieval Islamic society. However, Khan's endeavour to usher in puritan Islam of the yore, proved to be his undoing. His possible assassin, Naveed, was incensed by Khan's claim to establishing 'Riyasat-e-Madina' -- which was set up by Prophet Mohammad -- thereby comparing himself with the Prophet, and was thus guilty of blasphemy.

Hypocrisy is the hall mark of politics in Pakistan. Imran Khan, pretending to take on the army, is himself a product of this hydra-headed institution - a quasi religious, politico-business enterprise - an Islamic fighting machine - on which Pakistan's existence rests. Khan has successfully exploited this system - a hybrid of army and civilian power structure - being a part of it and by attacking it at his convenience. He has successfully turned his personal agenda into a mass movement for "haqeeqi azaadi" or real freedom.

Khan is surely not working to change the system and to correct the civilian-military imbalance in the interest of democracy. Imran Khan turned against the army because it remained indifferent when the "conspiracy" to remove him from power was being hatched. The 'establishment' remained neutral, and allowed the Imran Khan government to collapse. So Khan is sulking: Why didn't the army intervene in his favour, when he was in difficulties and is now helping his enemies.

After his government was pulled down, Imran Khan fought back by exploiting the economic failures of the coalition government and harping on the foreign conspiracy narrative to appeal to the underlying Pakistani sentiment which loves to believe in conspiracy theories - in which the wily Indians or westerners are the usual villains. Smoked out, the army, in an unprecedented move decided to hold a press conference. Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum, director general, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), accused Imran Khan of making unconstitutional demands on the army for sacking the present government and announcing early elections.

What General Nadeem has said may be true, but masses for now are corralled behind the defiant Khan. For the first time, slogans like "Yeh jo dehshatgardi hai, uske pichhe vardi hai (Uniformed people are behind terror attacks)" were raised by youth during a conference organised by the Asma Jahangir Foundation. But for many, it's poetic justice - Khan is getting a taste of his own medicine. While the first half of Bajwa's tenure saw Nawaz Sharif ouster, in the concluding part, Khan is the victim.

The turmoil in Pakistan may reach a turning point by the end November, when the Pakistan Army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, is due to retire, after holding the office for six years. Whether he hangs his boots finally, or he has something else in his mind, is not known. If he does quit, as he has declared more than once, who would succeed him - is a question without any tangible answer.

The sheer absurdity of the situation in Pakistan was underlined when Khan asked for a "consensus" chief, to be named after consultations among himself, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Bajwa. Even if Khan somehow gets to appoint his man, there's no guarantee of loyalty. Pak army chiefs usually outsmart politicians. Bajwa was appointed by Nawaz in 2016. However, the then PM's judicial ouster in 2017 was widely believed to have been orchestrated by the army. Beginning with Iskandar Mirza, who appointed Ayub Khan out of turn in 1951, the army chiefs were finally more loyal to their own ambitions and institution than to the person who had put them at that place.

While the top political leadership and army are busy in power struggle, a tanking economy, backbreaking inflation, massive unemployment and sporadic violence have further added to the woes of the common man who continues to seek comfort in Islamic mores. Meanwhile, Pakistan's graph in international arena is dropping at a fast pace.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who had planned to visit Pakistan on November 21 on his way back from the G20 Summit in Bali and a state visit to Seoul, has now postponed that, ostensibly keeping in mind India's sensitivities. Media reports from Pakistan have said that the new Army chief's appointment at the end of this month may have also played a role in Salman's decision to skip the Islamabad leg of the visit.

President Xi Jinping last Wednesday expressed "deep concern" over the security of Chinese nationals in Pakistan working on the CPEC projects and sought "reliable and safe environment" for them during his talks with PM Shehbaz Sharif, who was on his maiden visit to China.

This is the second time in two months Xi expressed concern over the attacks on Chinese nationals working in Pakistan by the Baloch Nationalist Army and other militant groups. China is reportedly pressing Pakistan to permit Chinese security agencies to provide security for their personnel which, Islamabad is resisting as it meant boots on the ground for Chinese forces.

There is little doubt that Pakistan is tottering, undergoing convulsions. It's not strong enough to hold on as one nation with shared ethos and aspirations, nor is it too weak to fall and disintegrate fast. Pakistan was born out of hate - hate for all that pre-Islamic India stands for. Hate for residual India, and its pluralistic ethos define Pakistan's identity. Even though none knows the end of ongoing political crisis, Pakistan is surely heading towards a bigger crisis. The beleaguered nation is programmed to move from one crisis to another. It will continue to be in difficulties till it finds a positive reason for its existence.

(Mr. Balbir Punj is a Former Member of Parliament and a Columnist. He can be reached at: [email protected])

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of OneIndia and OneIndia does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.