In Yeddyurappa’s resignation, here is the bigger BJP plan
While many may view the resignation of B S Yeddyurappa as a defeat, there would be another ploy on the party's mind. From the time the results were declared and the party staked a claim to government, it was aware that it did not have the numbers to go through with the floor test.
There were attempts made at first to lure some of the MLAs from the Congress and JD(S), but it did not materialise. By Friday it was clear that the party did not have the strength to survive a floor test.
There were hectic deliberations between the Karnataka and Central leadership after which it was decided on Friday itself that the BJP would not face the trust vote. It was decided that Yeddyurappa would address the assembly and make an emotional appeal to the people. He said during his speech that he would continue to work for the people whether he was in power or not. He made an interesting point when he said that he would ensure that the BJP wins all the 28 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
There was a message in this statement made by Yeddyurappa. The BJP is confident that the Congress-JD(S) combine would not last beyond a year. If the coalition were to collapse, the BJP would not stake a fresh claim to form the government. It would prefer president's rule in the state and then go for fresh elections.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team have been emphasising on a one nation one poll. There are deliberations on with the Election Commission of India to see if the Lok Sabha polls could be held simultaneously with the ones at Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. If the BJP's ploy were to work then Karnataka would get added to the list.
In Yeddyurappa's speech today there was also a veiled appeal to the Lingayat community that he belongs to. The Lingayats are bound to look at these developments sympathetically and blame the Congress and the JD(S) for not allowing their leader to become the CM. This is likely to benefit the BJP further in the Lok Sabha elections and also the Karnataka polls if one were to be held in the next couple of months. The Lingayats would have a bearing particularly on the Congress. The JD(S) which relies heavily on the Vokkaliga votes would however not be affected.
The BJP performed exceptionally well in the Lingayat belt and bagged over 60 per cent of the votes. The Lingayats backed the BJP and not the Congress which had proposed a separate religious minority status.