Is it ok for Pakistan to attack India after Barack Obama leaves?
What did the United States of America mean when it told Pakistan to ensure that there is no cross border terror incident during the visit by President Barack Obama to India? A bare reading of the statement indicates that if there is any such incident during the Obama visit then Pakistan would face the consequences.
The other pertinent question that comes to mind is what about the scenario after President Obama leaves India. Is it alright to resume cross border terror after that? [Read: Terror threat during Obama's India visit: US warns Pakistan to face consequences]
We have seen several American Presidents come to India in the past. All statements during their visit have been tough in words, but the real action never came through.
Cross border terror has been India's major concerns for several years now. India has very often complained about terror sanctuaries aided by the Pakistan ISI and army which have been launching attacks on Indian soil.
However the US has been quick to issue statements, but real action never came through. Security experts say that if the US can use its drones on terrorists working against their interests then it could well help India carry out similar strikes against the likes of Hafiz Saeed and Sajir Mir who are internationally dangerous.
US policy towards Pakistan is very questionable
India has very often questioned the grant of military aid to Pakistan. India has argued time and again that military aid to Pakistan is being diverted towards militant activities against India.
However the US was in no mood to listen. It proposed a 280 billion dollar aid to the Pakistan military. However keeping India's interest in mind it decided to reduce the civilian aid from 70 US dollars to 446 US dollars. The argument by the US was that it was the civilian aid which had a chance of being diverted while the military aid was a necessity to fight the war against terror.
Build up post Parliament attacked stalled
The US has told Pakistan that it wants no tension on the border during the Obama visit. It was the same US which had prevented India from a troop build up post the Parliament attack.
When India had made a genuine plea to the US about the need to build up its troops, it blatantly asked India for proof against Pakistan. No such proof of the Al-Qaeda was given post 9/11.
India had also expected that it would play a large role in Afghanistan. However it was disappointed when the US administration decided to make Pakistan a bigger player in Pakistan. This came in the wake of India making several complaints about the proxy war that Pakistan was carrying out in Kashmir.
Pakistan will stop but briefly
The warning from the US will ensure that Pakistan will not engage in cross border terrorism at least until the Obama visit is completed.
However military intelligence officials say that there is nothing to show that this is a permanent solution. It is quite a disappointing statement from the US and while the attempt should have been to provide a permanent solution they are aiming at temporary measures.
The fact is that the US cannot displease Pakistan at any cost. It would want Pakistan to have a major say in Afghanistan. It has clearly indicated that it would be Pakistan who would train the Afghan police and soldiers in 2015, a fact that does not boil down too well with India.
Let us talk statistics
It is quite surprising the US has decided to wake up to cross border terrorism just ahead of the Obama visit. The year 2014 alone has seen 540 cease fire violations by Pakistan, the highest in the past decade.
This is a major jump considering there were 148 in 2013. These cease fire violations aimed at infiltrating terrorists into India have become the norm of the day. With it making headlines everyday one would wonder the US had not issued a similar directive to Pakistan all these years.
Statistics would show that there were 21 violations in 2007, 77 in 2008, 28 in 2009, 41 in 2010, 51 in 2011. The number today has gone up almost ten fold and despite complaints on several occasions the US has not really reacted on the issue.