Impending climate change- a threat!

New Delhi, June 5: India is observing the World Environment Day today under a greater threat of an impending climate change which would throw its agriculture, industry and natural resources under severe strain.

And most of all, it is now under an increasing pressure for cutting down carbon emissions with the U N Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its latest report underscoring that carbon emission needs to be reduced to levels between 50 and 85 per cent by 2050, to contain the rise in global temperature within two degrees, a threshold which it says was needed to ward off the disastrous climate changes.

So far, India and China, which is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases after the United States, have been refusing to agree to any cuts in carbon emission, arguing that decreasing use of hydrocarbons will impact their economic development.

Both the countries depend heavily on hydrocarbons for their energy requirements.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, which requires developed nations to cut their emissions by certain levels, India, China and other countries are exempted from any such obligations. US and Australia have refused to conform to the Protocol, which is going to expire in 2012.

However, the United Nations panel dismisses the 'loss of growth' argument, saying that the overall, cost of reducing and stabilising GHG emissions ''tends to be comparable to, or lower than, costs of inaction.'' It firmly asks all countries to introduce drastic cuts in their emissions of greenhouse gases to check the rise in temperatures and sea levels that would trigger a disastrous chain of events.

The Ministry of Environment and Forests in its latest response to the issue of emission reduction categorically rejected any such idea, saying it is the develping countries which are historically responsible for emission of greenhouse gases and so they should allow concessions to developing countries in the interest of their economic development.

But there are opinions which dispute this stand. The Centre for Science and Environment says in its latest issue that the need for economic growth was not an excuse for not taking on tough and deep binding emission reduction targets.

''We know it is in our interest not to first pollute, then clean up; or first to be inefficient, then save energy. The question is to find low-carbon growth strategies for emerging countries, without compromising their right to develop,'' says CSE director Sunita Narain.

Dr R K Pachauri, who heads the IPCC, feels India may not escape from the mandate to cut down carbon emissions when the next stage of Kyoto Protocol comes into force in 2012.

The IPCC studies predict a rise in global temperature to somewhere between 1.8 and 4.0 degrees Celsius due to increasing human-induced concentration of greenhouse gases into the atmposphere.

Temperature rose about 0.7 degrees Celsius in the 20th century.

A more warmer globe will spell greater disaster for poor countries like India who have to house and feed a huge population dependent on agriculture, which itself was dependent on vagaries of weather and climate.

The IPCC says if preventive measures were not taken soon, India will be among the major contributors of carbon dioxide, one of the green house gases, into the atmosphere.

More than the geographical features, the climatic changes would affect the socio-economic life of the country.

That is simply because the per capita income and the standard of living was already poor and any adverse impact on agriculture due to climatic changes will spell great complexities.

The UN Panel projects substantial decreases in the production of food grains in India and other Asian countries.

Half a degree Celsius rise in winter temperatures would reduce wheat production by 0.45 metric tons per hectare. The average wheat yield in India is 2.6 metric tons per hectare.

The loss of yield would seriously threaten India's food security having far reaching effects for other sectors.

Water availability was also going to be seriously affected by the rise in global temperatures, Dr Pachauri said. Water available per person will be reduced by almost 38 per cent by 2050.

This water shortage will be caused by deficient rains, melting of glaciers due to rise in temperature, and reduction in recharge of ground water due to run off as a consequence of floods resulting from excessive rain over a few days.

Heavy rainfall over fewer days, implying increased frequency of floods during the monsoon, will also result in loss of the rainwater. The direct run off of water would reduce the groundwater recharging potential.

UNI