Monsoon to hit NE in 3-4 days

Guwahati, May 29 (UNI) The South West Monsoon will hit the North East in the next three-four days, ahead of the schedule arrival of June 5.

Deputy Director General of the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) here, Dr RP Samui said, ''although it will be difficult to predict the exact date, we can say that in the next three-four days monsoon is arriving.'' So far there have been shortfall in rainfall in the whole north east but having faced a severe drought-like situation last year, the region, including Asom, is likely to get a near normal monsoon this time.

As per the data made available by the Indian Meteorological Department, the Tripura-Mizoram-Manipur-Nagaland zone received almost normal rainfall but Asom-Meghalaya-Arunachal Pradesh Zone received less rainfall.

However in last week, the first zone received excessive rainfall to the extent of 110 per cent, but the other zone remained deficient. So far till this week, against the normal 377 mm of rain, the first zone received 342 mm, while the other zone received 364 mm against 569 mm of rainfall, which is at least 36 per cent less than normal.

Dr Samui said by far it has been a 'good' pre-monsoon condition, which will help the 'ahu' rice to grow well. ''Statistically if we see, in all probability, there should be a normal monsoon this year, as has been predicted for the entire country.'' In its first forecast, India's meteorology office predicted last week that this year the country would experience 95 per cent of the 'long period average rainfall'.

Last year, the weatherman predicted 93 per cent rainfall, but the country received 100 per cent rainfall, even though some areas, like the North East witnessed a drought-like situation.

In 2006 an unpredicted drought-like situation in Asom affected over 8 lakh farmers in 19 districts, besides damaging 5 lakh hectares of crop. While an area of 2.95 lakh hectares used for growing winter rice was totally damaged, the state's productivity went down to 1,347 kg per hectare from 1,487 in the previous year.

''Statistics says that normally there shouldn't be three consecutive years of deficit rainfall. So, Asom is expected to get normal or excess rains this year,'' Dr Samui said, while allaying fears of flood.

Rampant deforestation in the region, including Asom, Dr Samui said, is also a contributing factor towards the decline in average rainfall.

Significantly, this year, the meteorology department has adopted a new forecasting strategy, called the 'six-parameter method', instead of the trouble-ridden old method, which had deceived the weatherman in the last few years.

UNI