IMF draft points to strong world growth, no US slump

PARIS, March 14 (Reuters) Global economic growth is likely to slip to 4.9 percent in 2007 and 2008 from 5.3 percent last year, with U.S. growth slowing to 2.6 percent this year but rebounding in 2008, according to draft IMF forecasts obtained by Reuters.

The figures obtained before publication of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook (WEO) in mid-April, suggest that the performance of the past few years, the best in three decades, generally looks set to continue despite a U.S.

lull.

The figures put U.S. growth at 2.6 percent in 2007 and 3.0 percent in 2008, both 0.3 percentage points lower than the IMF forecast back in September and coming after a 3.4 percent rise in gross domestic product in 2006.

That fits with predictions by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development this week of a U.S. slowdown that would be offset primarily by continued healthy growth in Europe in 2007.

The IMF figures envisage growth in euro area of 2.3 percent this year and next year after 2.8 percent in 2006, which marked a major recovery and the best performance in six years.

Those figures are a third of a percentage point higher than the IMF was forecasting previously for this year and higher by almost as much for 2008 -- showing the extent to which Europe may offset the drop in U.S. growth.

The forecasts put growth in Japan at 2.2 percent in 2007 and 1.9 per cent in 2008, after 2.2 percent in 2006.

Within Europe, the IMF is counting for the moment on German growth of 1.8 percent in both 2007 and 2008 after 2.7 percent in 2006, according to the draft figures.

The growth forecast for France is 1.9 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2008, after 2.0 percent this year.

Italy, third biggest economy in the euro zone after Germany and France respectively, is seen growing 1.8 percent this year and 1.7 percent, after 1.9 in 2006.

For Britain, the draft figures put growth at 2.9 percent this year -- the fastest for any G7 country -- and 2.7 percent in 2008, unchanged from 2006.

For Canada, the GDP rise is put at 2.5 percent this year and 3.0 percent next year, after 2.8 percent in 2006.

The IMF also includes Spain on its list of big players in the industrialised world, with the draft figures pointing to growth there of 3.4 percent in 2007 and 3.3 percent in 2008, after 3.8 in 2006.

In the higher-growth world of emerging giants, Chinese GDP is seen expanding 10 percent in 2007 and 9.5 percent in 2008, in line with government plans there to slow the pace after growth of 10.7 percent growth in 2006. For India, the IMF's draft figures point to growth of 8.3 percent this year and 7.8 percent next year after 9.3 percent in 2006.

Expansion in world trade is likely to slow to 6.9 percent in 2007 from 9.1 percent in 2006 and pick back up to 7.4 percent in 2008, according to the draft forecasts.

The IMF's global GDP growth figure for last year, 5.3 percent, matches that of 2004 as the best since the early 1970s.

REUTERS SRS DB2104