Hungary gov't set to survive local election losses

BUDAPEST, Sep 28 (Reuters) Protests over the past two weeks have added extra spice to local elections in Hungary on Sunday, but unless the Socialists and their allies lose heavily in big cities, there is unlikely to be much political fallout.

A tape of Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany in which he admitted lying to win April's general election triggered peaceful protests involving tens of thousands of people and some rioting.

The main opposition Fidesz party, whose support stood at 34 per cent in a poll taken on September 1, has portrayed the vote as a referendum on the government's budget cuts, which were introduced after Gyurcsany won re-election.

''Political and moral support for the Gyurcsany government seems to be evaporating, it may well have evaporated already,'' Fidesz leader Viktor Orban told private Duna television today.

In the latest poll, the Socialists were on 23 per cent.

Fidesz terms the government ''illegitimate'' but ''legal'' and says if it wins more than 50 per cent of the party vote, the government should quit and be replaced by an interim government of experts and new elections held.

Gyurcsany and the government have stood firm, saying they will implement plans to slash Hungary's budget deficit, which at 10.1 per cent of gross domestic product is the biggest in the European Union.

Analysts say that Fidesz will probably sweep the countryside but unless the Socialists lose their urban strongholds or their Free Democrat allies lose Budapest, the effect will be zero.

''It will not have an effect at all on national politics,'' said Monika Pal of Vision Consulting.

At present Fidesz holds just 5 of 23 urban counties after a landslide for the government in 2002 and while cities like the affluent Gyor, home to car makers like Audi and Suzuki, will likely fall to the opposition, they need to score elsewhere.

That said, there is a great deal at stake for both Gyurcsany and opposition leader Viktor Orban.

If Gyurcsany's Socialists do lose heavily, party members, some of whom are unwilling reformers could start agitating against the brash self-made millionaire.

If Orban does not eat into the Socialist lead in the big cities, he will add another failure to the dubious distinction of being the first opposition leader since the end of communism to fail to unseat a government in a general election.

There is also a risk for Fidesz that the riots will make Socialist and Free Democrat voters turn out in larger numbers.

''There will be questions, why again should we elect a party leader (Orban) who has won one general election in the last three,'' said Vision Consulting's Pal.

Reuters SP GC1530