China quiet on Taiwan protests to avoid backlash

Taipei, Sept 28: China has kept quiet on Taiwan's recent outbreak of street protests calling for the ouster of independence-leaning President Chen Shui-bian because it fears any strong reaction might backfire, analysts say.

During an 18-day-old protest against Chen that was sparked by allegations of corruption among members of his family and administration, Chinese officials have issued only terse statements noting that they were monitoring the protests.

''We have clearly stated that (the issues) should be resolved by Taiwan people.'' Li Weiyi, spokesman for China's policy-making Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a news conference yesterday.

Beijing's reticence may reflect lessons learned from a more forceful approach a decade ago.

In an effort to frighten voters away from choosing pro-independence candidate Lee Teng-hui in 1996, China fired unarmed missiles into the waters off the island ahead of Taiwan's first popular ballot for president. The plan backfired, with Lee winning by a landslide.

''That's the sort of thing they're likely to avoid, in order not to create a backlash,'' said Shelley Rigger, associate professor of East Asian politics at Davidson College in the United States.

''But criticising the side that is working against the PRC's (People's Republic of China's) interests and preferences is something they're likely to continue to do when they believe it may be helpful,'' Rigger said.

Since the Nationalists fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war in 1949, China has seen self-ruled Taiwan as a renegade province that should be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.

TWO SYSTEMS

China has chosen to keep its distance during the island's political unrest, to show the Taiwan people that the two sides could reunite on the ''one country, two systems'' principle that now governs ties between Beijing and Hong Kong, analysts close to the Chinese government say.

State media in China have carried brief stories about pro- and anti-Chen demonstrations, which have drawn from a few thousand to more than 300,000 people at a time, but had not editorialised on the events, probably to avoid giving mainland citizens any ideas of mounting their own anti-government protests, said Li Chunming, a Beijing-based historian and former Chinese TV network employee.

Taiwan protesters say they oppose Chen because of allegations that he hid state affairs budget spending, that the first lady accepted gift certificates and that his son in-law was involved in insider trading. Some critics say Chen has contributed little to the economy.

Chen rejects the allegations and has said he will not step down, but his popularity has sunk to historic lows.

In a move some analysts said was aimed at regaining the initiative, the administration revived talk of a constitutional change of the island's official name, to ''Republic of Taiwan'' instead of ''Republic of China,'' a hot-button issue that drew rebukes both from Beijing and Washington.

''China is worried that Chen's reaction to the protest against him may be with an independence-oriented amendment to the constitution,'' said Marion Wang, associate political science professor at National Sun Yat-Sen University in Kaohsiung in Taiwan's south.

''If this is the case, China is forced to handle it by use of force.'' Chances are low that Chen can move his independence-leaning agenda forward as he faces corruption allegations with less than two years left in his term.

Still, Xu Shiquan, vice president of the National Society of Taiwan Studies in Beijing, says China will not stand by quietly if it sees signs the demonstrations might affect relations with the mainland.

Beijing also showed it will comment on cross straits affairs, as it blasted Chen for considering changing Taiwan's name and redefining its territory.

''You can say they're watching with wide open eyes but with a cool mind,'' Xu said. ''What we're looking at is whether the demonstrations have anything to do with the cross-Straits issue.''

REUTERS

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