IEA warns G8 of sharp rise in CO2 emissions

PARIS, June 22 (Reuters) Emissions of climate-changing carbon dioxide could more than double by 2050 if unchecked, the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday, ahead of an energy-focussed meeting of G8 world leaders in July.

The Paris-based IEA, adviser to 26 industrialised nations, said in a report that it was possible for the world to emit less carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2050 than today while also increasing energy production.

But it warned that in the absence of new policies, global energy demand and CO2 emissions would more than double by 2050 to 58,000 billion tonnes.

''We can find a sustainable energy future but it's not the case with the current trends. We're very far from that,'' IEA executive director Claude Mandil told a news conference.

The report, that draws different scenarios to 2050, is part of the Agency's response to the call from G8 leaders at the Geneagles summit in July 2005 for the IEA to advise on scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean and competitive future.

''It is no coincidence if we publish the book one month ahead of the G8 meeting in Saint Petersburg,'' Mandil said.

He added the most likely scenario to take place was a six percent rise in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, with a drop in emissions from the power industry but a rise from the transport sector.

But he said that to solve problems in the long term, the world should urgently improve energy efficiency and the development of capture and storage of CO2 (CCS).

''Improved energy efficiency is an indispensable component of any policy mix and is it available immediately,'' said Mandil.

He said that if the world failed to make CCS viable, the cost of mitigating CO2 emissions would be much higher.

Deploying CCS, along with more renewables, more nuclear and more efficient use of natural gas and coal, can significantly decarbonise global power generation by 2050, the IEA said.

''With the right policy incentives we think there is scope for renewables to quadruple by 2050 and for nuclear to gain a more important role where it is acceptable,'' he added.

''If we want to avoid the worse scenario there is a cost within reach of the world,'' Mandil said, adding that the IEA had supposed the cost per tonne of CO2 avoided at 25 dollars.

''It's less than the annual average price of CO2 on the European carbon market,'' he added.

For a story on the nuclear aspect of the IEA report click on Reuters ARB RK1855