Thai crisis expected to worsen after royal jubilee

BANGKOK, June 11 (Reuters) Thailand's political crisis is expected to worsen after a truce for gala festivities for the Diamond Jubilee of revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej end this week, analysts, newspapers and the opposition say.

Despite repeated calls by the world's longest serving monarch for a negotiated end to the crisis, they appear to be going unheeded in the campaign to oust Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

No one is sure how the fight to unseat Thaksin, winner of elections by landslides but accused of hijacking institutions meant to be independent to consolidate power in his own hand, will end.

The scenarios range from an eventual re-run of an April 2 snap general election that was boycotted by the main opposition parties and later declared unlawful, to military intervention in the coup-prone nation.

''There are a lot of unsolved and unresolved issues in the political arena and this temporary truce should not be taken as an indication that things have quietened down,'' said Christopher Bruton of Bangkok-based Dataconsult.

The Matichon newspaper said in an editorial today that the Jubilee truce would recharge both sides.

''A break doesn't mean an end, but a return of fight.'' The two main immediate issues are the fates of the Election Commission and Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party.

The three remaining election commissioners, accused of favouring the Thai Rak Thai, is resisting heavy pressure to quit.

Thai Rak Thai, accused of bankrolling small parties to run in uncontested seats to avoid the need to get 20 per cent of the eligible vote to claim victory on a one-candidate constituency, faces disbandment if found guilty.

Thailand's top judges, summoned by King Bhumibol and told to sort out the mess in late April, have called on the election commissioners to quit. It was not neutral, they said.

The commissioners deny any wrongdoing in a snap election Thaksin called to counter a months-long campaign of street demonstrations against him.

They face a series of court cases against them and there is much doubt whether the election re-run can be held as scheduled on October 15 in a country left with a caretaker government unable to take major economic decisions in difficult times.

''Everything is still fluid and we still don't know what will happen to the current Election Commission,'' opposition Democrat Party spokesman Thepthai Sanepong said.

Only one thing is sure -- street demonstrations for and against Thaksin, whose party backs the commissioners, will resume after the Jubilee.

''Should they stubbornly hold on to power after the royal anniversary, we will organise mass rallies to kick them out,'' said Suriyasai Katasila of the People's Alliance for Democracy, the group leading the street campaign against Thaksin.

Last month, the Election Commission investigation panel said two Thai Rak Thai leaders financed two fringe parties' runs in April.

The team recommended the Election Commissioners investigate further, but instead forwarded its report to the Attorney General Office's for a decision. The office said the commission should decide.

Analysts said the deadlock showed nobody was listening to anybody else and even the courts, mandated by the king, did not have the legal powers to act promptly.

Rumours of a military intervention emerged in the past week.

''It seems that there is no way out by legal means in this crisis and I've heard soldiers would like to break the deadlock,'' said a political scientist who also advises a politician in Thai Rak Thai and asked not to be named.

Matichon urged the three commissioners to quit to avoid ''the worse nightmare that nobody wants it to happen'' from happening.

REUTERS SHB RK0910