Ariel Sharon's shadow over Israel election

JERUSALEM, Mar 20: His image is omnipresent. Iconic footage of a young Ariel Sharon at war. A more elderly, almost smiling Sharon, on campaign posters.

Comatose since a stroke in January, Sharon is a constant presence for his Kadima party ahead of Israel's March 28 general election, which the four-month-old centrist group, now led by interim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, is expected to win.

The former army general's legacy of ''disengagement'' from the Palestinians -- epitomised by the withdrawal of Jewish settlers and troops from Gaza last year -- is the central campaign issue.

But while Sharon's vision hangs heavy over the vote, some analysts say his physical absence, and the unlikelihood of a recovery, mean Israelis may have seen the last of a generation of battle-hardened fighters at the apex of politics.

''This is the end of the age of warriors,'' said Yaron Ezrahi, a political science professor at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

''The real change is that for the first time we have three people in the leading parties ... and none have the reputation or the record of a heroic military general or a bloody ruthless fighter,'' Ezrahi said.

Olmert is a career politician as are his two main rivals, former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the rightist Likud party and ex-trade union leader Amir Peretz of centre-left Labour.

As an infantry commander, Sharon led his troops to an almost legendary number of battlefield victories, paving the way for his entry into politics in the 1970s.

But he drew Arab enmity for masterminding the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, during which allied Christian militiamen massacred Palestinians in two refugee camps, and later for crushing a Palestinian uprising that erupted after he visited a sensitive Jerusalem shrine in 2000.

SHARON'S MANTLE

Just weeks before his stroke, Sharon broke from Likud because of hardline opposition to his pullout from the Gaza Strip. He formed Kadima, reshaping Israel's political landscape.

While he vowed to keep large Jewish settlement blocs in the occupied West Bank, he made clear smaller enclaves would go -- an ideological shift based on his belief that Israel should set borders based on geopolitical and demographic considerations.

Palestinians believe Sharon's idea is a grab for occupied land that would deny them a viable state by keeping their cities isolated from each other by settlements and settler roads.

Olmert, who espoused ''disengagement'' as Sharon's deputy, has taken the policy a step further.

He has promised to impose Israel's final borders by 2010 through pullouts from parts of the West Bank if a Palestinian government, being formed by the militant Islamist group Hamas, does not recognise Israel and disarm.

Mark Heller, of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, said the political scene had moved on since Sharon's stroke but he remained a significant factor in the election. Sharon had tapped into the disillusionment many Israelis felt with left-wing visions of peace or the determination of the right to keep the occupied territories, Heller said.

Olmert was now trying to wrap himself in Sharon's mantle.

''It's not only the policy per se (of disengagement), but also his effort to make sure some of Sharon's aura rubs off on him, particularly in the field of security where his own personal record is not all that self-evident,'' said Heller.

''And so in their election campaign themes, they are making a lot of reference to Sharon, either direct or oblique.'' In military action sure to bolster Olmert's security credentials, Israeli forces raided a Palestinian jail in the West Bank on March 14 and seized a militant leader accused by Israel of killing a cabinet minister in 2001.

Ezrahi said Sharon had changed the face of the election by showing that removing settlers was possible. Not long ago, the notion that the one-time champion of settlements would tear down part of his own project was unthinkable.

Gaza, seen as a security risk by many Israelis, was the first removal of settlements from land Palestinians want for a state.

''The enormous popularity of that withdrawal and the terrible blow inflicted upon the status of the settlers indicated ... that the folding up of settlements may not be a prescription for political suicide,'' said Ezrahi.

''This is very significant and means that people say to themselves, 'if even Sharon is supporting withdrawal, then that must be in the vital interest of Israel'.''

WHERE ARE THE GENERALS?

Sharon's dominance of public life also headed off any political challenge from former military or security chiefs, as seen in the list of candidates for this poll, analysts said.

''The military element of this leadership is not very visible and that's a very important change,'' said Gerald Steinberg at Israel's Bar Ilan University.

''It could be temporary if we have another round of major fighting which is likely if Hamas launches another terror campaign or Iran really heats up. Then we could see a move towards military figures again.'' At Hebrew University on Mount Scopus, overlooking the holy sites of Jerusalem that are at the heart of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, students showed how quickly the younger generation had moved on since Sharon fell ill.

While some said he was indispensable to selling the Gaza pullout, many argued a new day had already dawned.

''He's a bit like a ghost. It's sad, but he doesn't have any relevance to the elections ... His way is relevant, but not the man,'' said Noa Kremer, 24, a masters student in Bible studies.

REUTERS