Fierce SP-BJP contest on cards in Kauriram assembly bypolls

Gorakhpur, Mar 20 (UNI) The absence of a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate, division of Nishad community votes and the likely consolidation of upper caste electorate for a single candidate, are likely to hold key to the outcome of March 25 assembly bypoll to Kauriram seat, which is throwing a big challenge to the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP).

Political pundits feel that the bypoll to the Nishad community dominated seat of this district, may eventually end up becoming a showdown between the SP and BJP.

The bypoll to the constituency was necessitated after the Supreme Court quashed the election of Ram Bhual Nishad. In the last elections in 2002, Mr Nishad, then a BSP candidate had won seat, but later on switched over to the SP.

The assembly constituency has a total of 3,26,000 voters.

Mr Nishad had earlier bagged 29.79 per cent of total votes, while his nearest rival Ambika Singh (SP) who is now with BSP was close second with 29.37 per cent votes.

A total of seven candidates are in the fray including Ram Bhuwal Nishad (SP), Shital Pandey (BJP) and Shiv Shambhu Nishad (Cong).

Though, the emerging political permutations and combinations are still very vague in the seat, the electoral success of Mr Nishad seems to be difficult, especially due to another candidate of the Nishad community, from Congress, Shiv Shambu Nishad.

The division of the Nishad vote is likely to help the BJP candidate Shital Pandey, who is banking on the support of BJP MP and Gorakhashapith successor Yogi Adityanath and a possible consolation of upper caste votes in his favour.

Political observers feel that the SP candidate's electoral path had further been complicated by two incidents of crime in Katka and Godasari in the recent past, resulting in the division of the Nishad votes and the consolidation of upper caste against him.

Besides, the BSP which has not fielded any candidate might transfer its traditional Dalit votes and upper caste Thakur, Brahmin and Bhumihar votes in favour of the candidate who is likely to give a run for money to Mr Nishad.

The likely benefit in this case may flow to the BJP, who despite the presence of a rebel candidate in Upendra Shukla, is not likely to suffer much.

Things for Mr Nishad, however, could again turn rosy, especially after four time MLA from the seat, Gauri Devi, recently rejoined the SP and has since been actively campaigning for the official party candidate.

The March 23 public meeting of Chief Minister and SP supremo Maulayam Singh Yadav, who had attached immense importance to the bypoll, is also likely to lead to consolidation of Yadav votes in Mr Nishad's favour.

The late last night expulsion of Upendra Shukla from the party, may also spoil BJP prospects, with a likely backlash by the sizeable Brahmin voters and those against the Gorakhpur BJP MP.

The Congress, meanwhile, despite fielding a Nishad candidate, does not appear to gain much, except denting the fortunes of the SP candidate, banking on the support of the same community. The Congress had won the seat only two times in last eight assembly elections -- both the times the winner was Lal Chand Nishad.

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