CNN-IBN election tracker: BJP may get 42-50 seats in UP

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New Delhi, April 3: The CNN-IBN's election tracker for the upcoming Lok Sabha election done jointly with the Lokniti, CSDS and The Week between March 18 and 25 revealed the following figures in various states:

[See: CNN-IBN poll tracker for eastern India]

[See: CNN-IBN poll tracker for southern India]

[See: CNN-IBN poll tracker for western and central India]

Delhi (7 seats)

Thirty-four per cent of respondents felt the AAP did right in quitting power in Delhi, while 47% felt it was wrong. Sixty-eight per cent of the respondents felt satisfied with the AAP government of Delhi while 27% were not.

Thirty-eight per cent of the respondents felt price rise is the top poll issue, followed by 20% who believed corruption is.

Predicted vote-shares and seats

Congress may get 22% vote-share, as against 57% in 2009 (0-1 seat)

BJP may get 40% vote-share, as against 35% in 2009 (3-4 seats)

AAP may get 29% vote-share (2-3 seats)

BSP may get 4% vote-share, as against 5% in 2009

If assembly polls are held in Delhi now, the AAP may get 42% of vote-share while the BJP may get 36% of the vote-share.

In case there is a hung parliament at the Centre, 25% of the respondents feels the AAP should join the NDA while just 15% feels it should join the UPA.

The BJP is also ahead of the AAP in terms of popularity among the youth (between 18 and 35 years).

Punjab (13 seats)

Twenty per cent of respondents feels that development is the top poll issue. the net satisfation level with the SAD-BJP government is 14%.

Predicted vote-shares and seats

Congress+ may get 29% vote-share, as against 45% in 2009.

BJP+ may get 42% vote-share, as against 44% in 2009.

BSP may get 5% vote-share, as against 6% in 2009.

AAP may get 14% vote-share

Others may get 10% vote-share, as against 5% in 2009.

Haryana (10 seats)

Twenty-four per cent of the correspondent believes development is the top poll issue. The net satisfaction level with the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government is -13%.

Predicted vote-shares and seats

Congress may get 30% vote share, as against 42% in 2009.

BJP may get 36% vote-share, as against 22% in 2009.

INLD may get 16% vote-share, same as that of 2009.

AAP may get 7% vote-share

Others may get 6% vote-share, as against 4% in 2009.

Himachal Pradesh (4 seats)

Predicted vote-shares and seats

Congress may get 45% vote-share, as against 46% in 2009.

BJP may get 45% vote-share, as against 50% in 2009

AAP may get 7% vote-share

Uttar Pradesh (80 seats)

Net satisfaction level with SP govt is just 1% while that with the UPA govt at the Centre -2%. Twenty-three per cent wants to give the UPA another chance while 56% doesn't.

Development is considered the top poll issue by 20% of those surveyed while price rise and corruption are believed to be the top poll issue by 17% each.

Predicted vote-shares and seats

Congress may get 16% vote-share, as against 21% in 2009 (4-8 seats)

BJP may get 36% vote-share, as against 18% in 2009 (42-50 seats)

SP may get 22% vote-share, as against 23% in 2009 (11-17 seats)

BSP may get 18% vote-share, as against 28% in 2009 (10-16 seats)

Others may get 8% vote-share, as against 10% in 2009

Thirty-four per cent of respondents in UP backs Narendra Modi as the PM, 12% backs Rahul Gandhi while 11% backs Mayawati.

Rajasthan (25 seats)

Net satisfaction level with the Vasundhara Raje government in Rajasthan is 31% while that with the UPA govt is -5%.

Thirty per cent of the respondents believes that the UPA government should get another chance why 51% says no.

Predicted vote-shares and seats

Congress may get 32% vote-share, as against 47% in 2009 (0-2 seats)

BJP may get 55% vote-share, as against 37% in 2009 (21-25 seats)

Others may get 13% vote-share, as against 16% in 2009 (0-2 seats)

Forty-six per cent of the respondents backs Narendra Modi as the PM while 21% backs Rahul Gandhi.

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