New Delhi, Sept 29: Will the ISIS look to carry out an attack in India when its primary focus at the moment in South Asia is on Afghanistan? The plan of the ISIS is very clear and it will make its way into India only after it gains a large amount of control in Afghanistan.
Any strike in India at this moment would ruin their chances in Afghanistan a great deal, security experts would state. The entry of the ISIS into India would either be through Jammu and Kashmir or a South Indian state where it has found the maximum number of sympathizers.
The ISIS at the moment is clearly looking for people it could recruit. All the recruitments that it has made from India so far has been for their battle either in Iraq or Syria. They have not yet started looking out for Indian recruits to join their battle in Afghanistan as yet.
Shishir Gupta, senior journalist with the Hindustan Times and an expert on security matters says that the story that the ISIS would look to target either Delhi or Rajasthan does not add up. Currently they are focusing in Afghanistan and they have been gaining in strength. Even if they do plan to carry out a strike in India, it could take place in South which has seen a bigger tilt towards the outfit, Gupta also adds.
Central Intelligence Bureau officials say that the ISIS is currently only focusing on radicalization. It wants numbers and would prefer if people leave their countries and join them in Syria and Iraq. Currently there is nothing to suggest that they are planning a coordinated strike in India.
Even if there is a strike it could be by an individual claiming to be part of the ISIS. For now there is no alert or input that suggests that the ISIS leadership has authorized a coordinated strike in India, the officer also adds.
The southern problem:
The problem of radicalization has been highest in South India. The Northern states face a bigger problem from the Indian Mujahideen or the Lashkar-e-Tayiba. The first known Indian, Haja to join the ISIS was from Tamil Nadu. The first time youth came out in open support of the ISIS by sporting t-shirts with the group's name was again from Tamil Nadu.
This was followed by the various incidents that have been witnessed in Telangana in the cases of Salman Mohiudin or Afsha Jabeen. The recent deportations from the UAE have all been to Kerala. Gupta says that if one were to view these incidents, then it is clear that even if someone wants to carry out a strike in the name of the ISIS, the focus would be down South.
The Ratlam module:
A few months there was news that the ISIS had set up its first module in Ratlam, Madhya Pradesh. While there was a lot of noise that was made about this module, it turned out to be a damp squib with central Intelligence agencies terming it as a wannabe module.
The persons arrested in connection with this Ratlam module were questioned and it was revealed that he was trying to carry out a blast to gain the attention of the ISIS. There was nothing to indicate that this module was set up by the ISIS or was it blessed by the outfit.