Will by-poll results in other states affect BJP’s prospect in UP?

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UP BJP office in Lucknow
BJP may have suffered a loss in the recently concluded by-elections but the party's major test will be at its bastion in Uttar Pradesh where by-polls on 10 assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat on September 13. A lot will be at stake when the party tests waters in the state months after it won record 71 out of 80 parliamentary seats from the state.

Samajwadi Party will be sole challenger to BJP

Samajwadi Party, BJP's biggest rival in the state, is also pulling out all stops to avenge the saffron party for the humiliation in the Lok Sabha polls. Riding on a Narendra Modi wave, the BJP had decimated SP in the state as the latter managed to win just 5 seats from its bastion.

Lesser troubles from a decimated Congress

The LS poll results were no less humiliating for the Congress as well. The party bagged just two seats from the state which gave the country four prime ministers belonging to the Congress. Therefore, UPCC is desperate to improve the party's lost credibility among voters in the state and by-election is an opportunity for the party cadres to win central leadership's confidence.

BSP out of by-poll race

All these parties might have faced some challenge from state's principal opposition Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) but Mayawati has decided to distance her party from by-polls following LS poll drubbing. BSP supremo has preferred redeeming party's lost faith of its traditional vote bank and prepare for 2017 assembly elections instead of wasting time and money in by-polls.

Triangular by-poll in UP

By-polls in UP will be a triangular contest between BJP, SP, Congress

Hence, there will be a triangular contest between BJP, Congress and SP and every party would hope to amass as many seats as possible to cement their fortune for next assembly poll in the state. All the three parties are eyeing to woo BSP's vote bank which shifted into BJP's favour during general election.

Can BJP repeat UP success?

The BJP once again would wish to repeat its LS poll success in UP as it will give the party an idea about what is the public mood and accordingly make its roadmap for "mission 2017". Even party's president and master strategist Amit Shah, who was responsible for party's stupendous win in UP, had also stressed on importance of better performance in the Hindi heartland.

"A loss would not augur well for our mission 2017," Shah was quoted as saying during recent his visit to the party office in Lucknow.

Will by-poll results affect the BJP in UP?

The BJP may have suffered losses in Uttarakhand, Bihar and Karnataka by-polls where the party even lost its traditional seats.

The party had won four seats in Bihar even after the JD(U)-RJD-Congress together were up in arms against the BJP to decimate the later. This shows that the party hasn't yet lost its vigour but it is the caste politics of union of its rivals which resulted in party's low show. So it is not a setback for the saffron party, though it is wake up call for the party.

The party cadre in all these states took the by-polls lightly but president's message to the party in BJP would force them to take it seriously. The state unit will have to definitely pull up its socks and try to make most of the credibility crisis its rivals SP and Congress are facing in the state.

Also, there is no JD(U)-RJD-Congress like grand alliance in Uttar Pradesh therefore the BJP might still be enjoying an upper hand over its rivals SP and Congress. But, the party will have to keep itself away from unnecessary controversies and should not be complacent of the LS poll win.

The party can still perform decently on September 13, if the workers reach out to the common man the way they did in the month of April-May. The party must remember that performing well in UP is a matter of pride for the BJP.

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