Will Trump pull out from Iran deal? The world will know today
All eyes will be set on Washington on Tuesday, May 8, as US President Donald Trump will spell out his take on the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 (formally known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)which his administration has called flawed and wish to quit, a move that could lead to major repercussions in world politics.
The US and other major powers of the world and the European Union had made the deal with Iran during the era of Barack Obama to contain Tehran's nuclear ambitions in exchange of lifting bans that have crippled Iran's economy over the years.
Trump will make his announcement on the deal at 2 pm ET (11.30 pm IST) and the world will watch with bated breath how the American president goes about on the Iran deal. Will he really quash Obama's legacy by reinforcing the sanctions on Iran but at the expense of triggering a massive crisis or will he change his stance in yet another U-turn?
Quitting the Iran deal will make Trump a hero in the eyes of his supporters and constituencies who he promised "America First" but it could also result in a military confrontation with Iran which has also threatened of massive consequences if the US went ahead and scrapped the deal. May 12 is the deadline for Trump to decide on Iran and the UK's European allies are also worried over the next steps of the American president.
Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited the US where they took up the issue with Trump but nothing concrete came out about on whether the West would continue with the deal. Britain Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has also urged Trump not to pull out from the deal.
According to a report in CNN, Trump could also stop short of imposing new sanctions immediately, thereby keeping the door ajar for the European powers to continue to work on "a broader deal that could keep Trump on board".
"It's pretty obvious to me that unless something changes in the next few days, I believe the President will not waive the sanctions," CNN quoted a European diplomat as saying.
If Trump eventually withdrew from the deal, it would mean Washington dumping multilateral diplomacy yet again and stressing on its unilateral moves, something it had done in Iraq in 2003. Also, if the US dumps the Iran deal, it would be a contradiction of short for it is also around the same time that it is trying to make a nuclear deal with North Korea, another member of what former president George W Bush had called the "Axis of Evil" in 2002.
The Iran deal issue has also made the headlines after a report carried by the Boston Globe said former US secretary of state John Kerry was carrying out a parallel diplomacy with European powers and Iran to save the 2015 deal, something Trump called "horrible" and "possibly illegal" recently.
The current Trump administration has a hawkish national security adviser in John Bolton and secretary of state in Mike Pompeo who also have a strong reservation against the 2015 deal and that could give the president a freer hand to go ahead and scuttle it even though there are Republicans who feel that such a move could be worse than staying in the deal.