NASA study says warming oceans may increase frequency of extreme storms
Washington, Jan 31: A new NASA study shows that the warming of the tropical oceans due to climate change could lead to a substantial increase in the frequency of extreme rain storms by the end of the century.
The study team, led by Hartmut Aumann of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, found that extreme storms -- those producing at least 3 millimetres of rain per hour over a 25-kilometre area -- formed when the sea surface temperature was higher than about 28 degrees Celsius.
They also found that 21 per cent more storms form for every 1 degree Celsius that ocean surface temperatures rise.
Currently accepted climate models project that with a steady increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (1 percent per year), tropical ocean surface temperatures may rise by as much as 4.8 degrees Fahrenheit (2.7 degrees Celsius) by the end of the century. The study team concludes that if this were to happen, we could expect the frequency of extreme storms to increase by as much as 60 percent by that time.
The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, also found that, based on the data, 21 per cent more storms form for every one degree Celsius that ocean surface temperatures rise.
"It
is
somewhat
common
sense
that
severe
storms
will
increase
in
a
warmer
environment.
Thunderstorms
typically
occur
in
the
warmest
season
of
the
year,"
said
Hartmut
Aumann
of
JPL.
"But
our
data
provide
the
first
quantitative
estimate
of
how
much
they
are
likely
to
increase,
at
least
for
the
tropical
oceans,"
Aumann
said.
Currently
accepted
climate
models
project
that
with
a
steady
increase
of
carbon
dioxide
in
the
atmosphere
(one
per
cent
per
year),
tropical
ocean
surface
temperatures
may
rise
by
as
much
as
2.7
degrees
Celsius
by
the
end
of
the
century.
The
study
concludes
that
if
this
were
to
happen,
we
could
expect
the
frequency
of
extreme
storms
to
increase
by
as
much
as
60
percent
by
that
time.
Although
climate
models
are
not
perfect,
results
like
these
can
serve
as
a
guideline
for
those
looking
to
prepare
for
the
potential
effects
a
changing
climate
may
have,
researchers
said.
"Our
results
quantify
and
give
a
more
visual
meaning
to
the
consequences
of
the
predicted
warming
of
the
oceans,"
Aumann
said.
"More storms mean more flooding, more structure damage, more crop damage and so on, unless mitigating measures are implemented," he said.
(with PTI inputs)