Yogendra Yadav predicts drubbing for BJP in Gujarat elections

Yadav's prediction starkly contradicts the predictions of most opinion polls that have come out so far.

Swaraj India leader and political expert Yogendra Yadav has predicted a major drubbing for the BJP in the Gujarat Assembly elections 2017 in which the second round of voting is set to be held tomorrow.

Yadav, in the Twitter handle, has given three possible scenarios, all of which predict win for Congress. In 'Scenario 1', which Yadav terms as 'possible' outcome, the Congress is slated to win 92 seats while the BJP will manage 86 seats. Vote share of both the parties is likely to be 43%.

My projections for Gujarat

Scenario1: Possible
BJP 43% votes, 86 seats
INC 43% votes, 92 seats

Scenario 2: Likely
BJP 41% votes, 65 seats
INC 45% votes, 113 seats

Scenario 3: Can't be ruled out
Even bigger defeat for the BJP pic.twitter.com/5VIvk8EiyV

— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) December 13, 2017

Yadav has predicted major gains for the Congress in rural areas while the BJP is likely to win more seats in urban areas. What is to be noted in urban areas is that the margin of win for BJP would drop significantly as compared to 2012 polls. In semi-urban areas, Congress is likely to gain by leaps and bound as compared to previous elections.

In 'Scenario-2', Yadav has predicted resounding victory for the Congress with the grand old party likely to get 113 seats witth 45 % vote share. His prediction for BJP in second scerio is that of 65 seats.

Yadav's prediction starkly contradicts the predictions of most opinion polls that have come out so far. According to the opinion poll conducted by Axis between September 15 and October 15 in all the 182 constituencies of Gujarat, the BJP was projected to bag between 115-125 seats. Out of the 18,243 respondents sampled by Axis My India, 48 per cent said that they would vote for the BJP, while 38 per cent said that they would vote for the Congress.

Last week, a News Nation ground zero poll of voters in Gujarat predicted that BJP will win majority in the state. The News Nation opinion survey's final tally projected that the BJP could win a majority in Gujarat by bagging 141 seats while Congress was projected to get 47 seats.

The India TV-VMR opinion survey earlier this month predicted that the BJP could win 106-116 seats out of the total 182 seats, while the Congress was expected to win 63-73 seats.

OneIndia News