Yeddyurappa set to become CM, but how will he tide over the rebel headache

Bengaluru, July 24: It is almost certain that B S Yeddyurappa would stake a claim to form the government. He has however said that before he takes any decision, he would consult with the party leadership.

For now, Yeddyurappa has the numbers, but his biggest challenge would be to accommodate the rebels. In the long list list of aspirants, 30 are former ministers. In addition to this there are 15 rebels and two independents.

BJP sources tell OneIndia that the immediate plan would be to install a government.

Following the resignations, the strength of the House has dropped. The House has 209 members and the the magic number is 103. The BJP on its own has 105 and in addition to this also has the support of the two independent MLAs, H Nagesh and R Shankar.

Before deciding on how to accommodate the rebels, the BJP would have to wait for the Speaker to take action. The fate of the rebels largely depends on the Speaker, who is seized of both their resignations as well as a complaint seeking their disqualification.

The big question is whether the Speaker will accept their resignation or will go ahead and disqualify them. If their resignations are accepted, then they could be accommodated as ministers in the next government.

However in the case of a disqualification, they cannot become ministers nor can they contest a by-election for the current assembly. They can contest an election in the next assembly. A disqualification would also mean that they cannot be elected as Members of the Legislative Council.

If the MLAs are disqualified, they are sure to challenge the same before the court. The disqualification complaint has been filed on the ground that they disobeyed the whips that were issued by the Congress and JD(S). However they would look to interpret the same citing the July 17 order of the Supreme Court. The court, while giving the Speaker a free hand to decide on their resignations, however noted that the rebels cannot be compelled to go to the assembly.

This point would require interpretation. The long and shot of it is that in case of a disqualification, there would be a long drawn legal process before the rebels could be accommodated.

In case, President's rule is imposed and the state goes for an election in the next six months, then nothing can stop these MLAs from contesting the polls.