Will Modi factor work for BJP in 2019? Check what this survey says
New Delhi, May 21: As India waits 2019 verdict on May 23, a post-poll survey conducted by The Hindu and CSDS-Lokniti has revealed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the preferred choice as Prime Minister in 2019 across India, especially in the northern states.
Interestingly, most of the voters decided to vote for the prime ministerial candidate without that option being offered in the question.
The survey also found that the appeal from BJP to vote to elect Modi as prime minister again is partly shielding the party from anti-incumbency (against the existing MPs).
44 percent of respondents said they want Modi to be prime minister while Rahul Gandhi was appealing to only 24 per cent of the respondents.
Nearly one in every three (29%) BJP voters and one in four (25%) voters of its allies said that they had voted looking at Modi instead of the BJP or the local candidate who had been fielded from their constituency.
Candidates seem to have mattered most to voters of the Congress's allies (44%), whereas party-based voting seems to have happened most among Left (55%) and Congress (54%) voters.
Modi would be the NDA's Prime Minister candidate seems to have worked as a buffer against local, constituency-level anti-incumbency.
The survey indicates that the PM candidate mattered most voters, who were dissatisfied with the performance of their sitting MP in Hindi-speaking States including those which recently refused to elect a BJP government at the State level.
While only 36% of BJP voters satisfied with their MP's performance reported having voted on the basis of Modi's candidature rather than the party or the candidate.
The boost the BJP gets from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal political capitalwhich took the party past the finish line in elections over the last few years-has often been referred to as the 'Modi factor'.
Modi's perceived iron-fist policy on security, his projection of nationalism, and his messaging on welfare programmes, has helped the BJP grow better. Even critics of Modi acknowledge that he turned the party's fortunes.
According to a report in The Hindu, current prime minister Modi was supported mostly by the youths and graduates and was pronounced higher in Hindi heartland. In Hindi heartland, except Uttar Pradesh, people were casting vote for prime ministerial candidate and not the other options like a party, local candidate etc.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 27 percent of those who supported BJP said in a CSDS survey that they would not have voted for BJP if Modi was not the prime ministerial candidate.
The Modi factor fetched the BJP 4.6 crore votes out of the 17 crore-odd votes it received in 2014.