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Why the Lucknow battle may not be a cake-walk for Rajnath Singh

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Lucknow, Mar 25: Lucknow has been a BJP bastion since 1991. The constituency of former Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the seat is currently held by Union Home Minister, Rajnath Singh.

The Congress however decided to give the BJP a tough fight in Lucknow and is likely to field Jitin Prasada instead of Dhaurahra. The move was initiated since Prasada is a Brahmin from a prominent political family.

Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh. PTI file photo

Prasada won his first election from Shahjahanpur in 2004. In the 2009 polls, he was shifted to Dhaurahra, which he won. However in 2014, he lost the polls to the BJP. While the Congress declared that Prasada would contest from Dhaurahra, there are reports that suggest that he may be moved to Lucknow.

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This is being done keeping the larger caste equations in mind. The party feels that it may gain if it fields a Brahmin from Lucknow. The Congress also feels that this would send a message that the party is trying to promote the Brahmin leadership in the state.

In Dhaurahra, 26 per cent of the voters are Dalits, while the Jatavs and Chamrs comprise 11 per cent of the electorate. The non-jatav votes amount to 15 per cent, while the OBCs make up for 22 per cent. The Muslims and Brahmins are 13 and 12 per cent respectively.

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Taking these factors into mind, the constituency does not seem to be feasible for Prasada. His 2009 win was largely attributed to the Congress wave and the party feels that this factor may not play out this time around.

Further it is also felt that fielding a Brahmin from Lucknow would attract the upper caste votes. Further his candidature would make a difference in urban Lucknow as well, the Congress feels.

Lucknow Fact Check
Year
Candidate's Name Party Result Vote Vote Share Margin
2014
Raj Nath Singh BJP Winner 5,61,106 55% 2,72,749
Prof. Rita Bahuguna Joshi INC Runner Up 2,88,357 28% 0
2009
Lal Ji Tandon BJP Winner 2,04,028 35% 40,901
Rita Bahuguna Joshi INC Runner Up 1,63,127 28% 0
2004
Atal Bihari Vajpayee BJP Winner 3,24,714 56% 2,18,375
Madhu Gupta SP Runner Up 1,06,339 18% 0
1999
Atal Bihari Vajpayee BJP Winner 3,62,709 48% 1,23,624
Dr Karan Singh INC Runner Up 2,39,085 32% 0
1998
Atal Bihari Vajpayee BJP Winner 4,31,738 58% 2,16,263
Muzaffar Ali SP Runner Up 2,15,475 29% 0
1996
Atal Bihari Vajpayee BJP Winner 3,94,865 52% 1,18,671
Raj Babbar SP Runner Up 2,76,194 37% 0
1991
Atal Bihari Vajpayee BJP Winner 1,94,886 51% 1,17,303
Ranjeet Singh INC Runner Up 77,583 20% 0
1989
Mandhata Singh JD Winner 1,10,433 34% 15,296
Dauji INC Runner Up 95,137 29% 0
1984
Sheila Kaul INC Winner 1,69,260 56% 1,22,120
Mohd. Yunus Saleem LKD Runner Up 47,140 16% 0
1980
Sheila Kaul INC(I) Winner 1,23,231 48% 30,382
Mahmood Butt JNP Runner Up 92,849 36% 0
1977
Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna BLD Winner 2,42,362 73% 1,65,345
Sheila Kaul INC Runner Up 77,017 23% 0
1971
Sheela Kaul INC Winner 1,71,019 72% 1,19,201
Purshottam Das Kapoor BJS Runner Up 51,818 22% 0
1967
A. N. Mulla IND Winner 92,535 37% 20,972
V. R. Mohan INC Runner Up 71,563 28% 0
1962
B. K. Dhaon INC Winner 1,16,637 50% 30,017
Atal Bihari Vajpayee JS Runner Up 86,620 37% 0
1957
Pulin Behari Banerji INC Winner 69,519 41% 12,485
Atal Bihari Vajpayee BJS Runner Up 57,034 33% 0

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