What a victory in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh means for the BJP, Congress

The big day is here and in a few hours from now, the verdict in the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections will be out. The verdict in both the states would mean a lot for both the BJP and Congress.

A victory for the BJP in both states would signal the political dominance of the party and also an affirmation that the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is intact.

On the other, a favourable outcome for the Congress would mark the beginning of a revival for the grand old party which has witnessed a downward swing since 2014.

While in Himachal Pradesh, Chief Minister Virabhadra Singh battled corruption charges, the real battle has been in Gujarat. In Himachal Pradesh where there is a trend of a change in guard every five years, the BJP declared Prem Kumar Dhumal as its chief ministerial candidate midway through the elections.

In Gujarat the battle was a hard fought one. Issues such as jobs, GST, the Patidar row and demonetisation were key issues raised by the Congress in its bid to corner the BJP. While Vijay Rupani, the Gujarat CM led the campaign, it was Modi who took centre stage. He addressed countless rallies in the state where he defended all the decisions taken by his government. He also drove across the point that development in Gujarat was all thanks to the BJP.

The Congress on the other hand led by its president, Rahul Gandhi spared no effort to criticise the Modi sarkar. Stitching up alliances with various players such as Hardik Patel, he focused on anti-incumbency , the agrarian crisis and also jobs.

The exit polls have all been in favour of the BJP. Leading psephologist and political scientist Dr Sandeep Shastri tells OneIndia that while there may be much for the BJP to rejoice, there is also some soul searching that needs to be done. The headline reads the BJP is retaining Gujarat. The deeper narrative however is that the BJP does not better its performance in the state when compared to 2012, he said.

The Congress has clearly not done enough explains Dr Shastri. To dislodge the BJP which has been in power, clearly a much bigger effort was needed, he says. For one, the Congress did not have a strong local leader on the ground. This was crucial for the Congress in case it had to beat the BJP in Gujarat.

These are all indications that the last mile advantage has gone to the BJP. The Gujarat voter clearly appears to have sided with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Somewhere the Gujarat voter thought that they did not want to strike a blow to their Prime Minister who hails from the state, says Dr Shastri.

The Congress on the other hand has not put in enough effort for a recovery. As pointed out earlier, the Congress needed to field a strong face in the state A much bigger effort was needed to dislodge the BJP which has ruled the state for the past 22 years.

One cannot forget the fact that the BJP has been in power in Gujarat for the past 22 years. To dislodge the BJP in the state needed a much bigger effort.

However the BJP will have some soul searching to do as the exit polls suggest that it would retain the state. The exit polls do not indicate that the party would better its performance when compared to 2012, Dr Shastri also says. While the headline is that the BJP is retaining Gujarat, the deeper narrative is that it is not all good news and the party will have some soul searching to do.

OneIndia News