Tripura heads for triangular contest in assembly elections
In the 2018 polls, the IPFT had not only bagged eight seats but also helped the BJP win 10 constituencies
Agartala, Feb 04: Newly formed political party Tipra Motha is likely to emerge as the kingmaker after the Tripura assembly polls, in which it will fight a triangular contest with the BJP-IPFT and Congress-Left Front alliances. Tipra Motha, headed by erstwhile royal scion Pradyot Manikya Debbarma, refused to stitch an alliance with either the BJP or foes-turned-friends Congress and Left Front but has not shunned the possibility of a post-poll coalition with any party that supports its demand for a separate state of Greater Tipraland.
Banking on its stupendous performance in the 2021, Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) polls, in which it bagged 18 of the 30 seats in the body, Tipra Motha has decided to go solo and hopes to sweep the 20 tribal-dominated seats that hold the key to power in the northeastern state that has a 60-member assembly. The BJP, on the other hand, is not leaving anything to chance, and has decided to contest 55 seats, leaving only five seats for alliance partner Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT), which has ceded much ground to Tipra Motha in the tribal areas as the newly formed outfit raised the demand for Greater Tipraland statehood.
The alliance partners will witness a friendly fight in Ampinagar assembly seat in Gomati district as IPFT will contest a total of six constituencies in the February 16 polls. In the 2018 assembly polls, in which the BJP-IPFT combine ended the 25-year-long rule of the Left Front, the saffron party had bagged 36 seats, including 10 ST reserved constituencies, while its alliance partner had bagged eight seats. However, the IPFT began losing public support after failing to deliver its core demand of Tipraland state, and instead agreeing to a common minimum programme of the BJP under which the Centre constituted a panel for socio-economic and linguistic development of the tribals, political observers said.
The IPFT, which once played a key role in eroding the Left Front's traditional tribal vote bank, over the last two-and-half-years suffered loss of support base as Tipra Motha began harping on the demand for Greater Tipraland, a separate state carving out tribal areas of Tripura. Political observers believe that Tipra Motha's popularity rose not only because it raised the separate statehood demand but also because tribals still revere the erstwhile royal family and they refer to Pradyot Debbarma as 'Bubagra' or king. Seeing Tipra Motha's rise in the tribal area, CPI(M) and Congress, rivals that joined hands, and even the BJP sought an electoral adjustment with the regional party but failed due to Debbarma's uncompromising attitude towards the Greater Tipraland demand, the political observers said.
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BJP leader and poll strategist Balai Goswami asserted that in an event of a triangular contest, the saffron party has an edge over the Tipra Motha and Congress-Left Front alliance as anti-BJP votes will get split among them. "For the first time, a regional party is going solo in the state. The BJP is expected to do better in the hills and it also has a solid base in the plains. We expect our party's tally to increase in this election," he told PTI. Senior CPI(M) leader Pabitra Kar said the Congress-Left alliance is expected to gain in the fight between Tipra Motha and the BJP as the saffron party's alliance partner IPFT has lost its strength in the hills, but the CPI(M) still has its loyal supporters in the tribal areas.
"In
the
2018
polls,
the
IPFT
had
not
only
bagged
eight
seats
but
also
helped
the
BJP
win
10
constituencies
in
the
hills.
But
this
time,
who
will
help
the
saffron
party
get
the
blessings
of
the
indigenous
voters?"
he
said.
Party
spokesperson
Anthony
Debbarma
said
Tipra
Motha
will
emerge
as
the
kingmaker,
bagging
at
least
25-26
seats.
"Since
the
stage
is
set
for
a
triangular
contest
in
almost
all
the
assembly
seats,
Tipra
Motha
will
be
the
gainer
in
the
polls.
We
will
not
only
win
the
tribal-dominated
seats
but
also
some
non-tribal
constituencies,"
he
said.
Prominent
Tipra
Motha
leader
Tapas
Dey
said
the
party
had
appealed
to
anti-BJP
forces
to
come
under
one
umbrella
but
neither
the
Left
nor
the
Congress
could
commit
to
Greater
Tipraland.
"Also,
voters
of
the
CPI(M)
and
the
grand
old
party
are
confused
over
whom
to
vote
in
the
scenario
of
changed
political
alignment,"
he
said.
The
Tipra
Motha
will
contest
42
of
the
60
seats
in
the
state.
According
to
the
seat
adjustment,
the
CPI(M)
will
contest
43
seats,
and
its
Left
Front
partners
Forward
Block,
RSP
and
the
CPI
one
each.
The
Left
Front
is
also
supporting
an
independent
candidate
in
Ramnagar
constituency
in
West
Tripura.
The
Congress
will
contest
13
seats,
the
Trinamool
Congress
28,
while
there
are
also
58
Independent
candidates.
Veteran journalist and political analyst Sekhar Dutta said Tipra Motha's entry into the electoral battle is going to hurt the BJP's poll prospects in the tribal areas as demonstrated in the TTAADC polls of 2021. "Tipra Motha will certainly perform well in TTAADC areas banking on its Greater Tipraland demand, while the BJP is unlikely to retain its tally of 10 ST seats due to the regional outfit's growing popularity among tribal voters. "Moreover there are six to eight non-reserved seats where tribal voters are the deciding factor. Hence, the BJP has to win more seats in the plains if it wants to retain power," he added.