Punjab elections: Why a win is crucial for the AAP and the Congress
A win in Punjab will be a shot in the arm for the BJP which eyes the 2019 general elections but for the Congress and the AAP this is a fight for political survival.
By end of Saturday, voters of Punjab would have decided for themselves the leadership they want for possibly the next five years. A triangular contest between the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance, the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party has made everyone take notice of the Punjab assembly polls. While a win in Punjab for their alliance will be a shot in the arm for the BJP in the 2019 parliamentary polls, for the Congress and the AAP, the win is a do or die for the image of the party as well as its leaders.
Thanks to the anti-incumbency sentiment against the current SAD government, the Congress was hoping for a comfortable win in Punjab, in fact, its best chance at victory out of all five state going into assembly polls stood in Punjab. The entry of AAP, however, has raised the stakes for all other parties. The massive undercurrent of support that AAP enjoys has come as a threat both, to the BJP as well as the Congress but AAP has its own drawbacks. The assembly polls in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh potentially has the power to change the future course of Indian politics.
Why a win is important for the Congress?
For
far
too
long
now,
Rahul
Gandhi's
elevation
in
the
Congress
has
been
pushed.
With
the
election
commission
asking
the
Congress
to
hold
its
internal
polls
before
June
2017
the
need
to
enhance
Rahul
Gandhi's
image
as
its
leader
has
become
important.
With
Sonia
Gandhi's
health
issues
and
Priyanka
Gandhi's
reluctance
to
join
active
politics
any
time
soon
and
in
the
absence
of
any
other
leader
out
of
the
Gandhi
family
to
become
the
torch
bearer
of
the
Congress,
this
is
a
make
or
break
election
to
project
Rahul
Gandhi
as
the
obvious
choice.
The
onus
of
reversing
Congress' losing
streak
since
2013
(with
certain
exceptions
like
Bihar)
is
now
on
Rahul
Gandhi.
The
need
is
not
just
to
revive
the
party
but
emerge
as
a
leader
independent
of
the
family
he
belongs
to
or
the
legacy
he
carries.
Moreover,
the
Punjab
elections
where
Congress
is
fighting
as
an
independent
entity
unlike
in
Uttar
Pradesh
where
it
is
in
alliance
with
the
SP,
a
win
will
be
the
Congress'
alone.
The
victory
in
Punjab
will
decide
who
Narendra
Modi's
nemesis
would
be,
Rahul
Gandhi
or
Arvind
Kejriwal.
The
Congress
needs
to
cement
its
position
as
the
entity
for
the
BJP
to
reckon
with
in
Punjab
instead
of
the
AAP,
who
is
a
debutante.
Congress'
fight
in
reality
is
first
with
the
AAP
to
establish
supremacy
and
then
the
BJP-SAD
alliance
to
gain
power
in
the
state.
Claiming its place as BJP arch rival means more support from like-minded regional parties like the Trinamool Congress and Janata Dal-United to the Congress. Mamata Banerjee's TMC cosied up to the Congress during agitations against demonetisation as much as it did to Arvind Kejriwal's AAP. Politics of convenience was at play and none can deny that regional parties with an interest in national political scenario, especially an anti-BJP outlook, will seek alliances that can be a formidable force to reckon with against the BJP in general and Modi in specific. The results of Punjab election will decide if this 'alliance' will be with Rahul Gandhi or Arvind Kejriwal.
What the AAP stands to gain
The AAP started focusing on its poll campaign much before any political party in Punjab. With no evident foothold, the AAP managed to win seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls but assembly elections are a different ball game and Arvind Kejriwal realised this only too soon. Candidates of the AAP began campaigning as early as August in 2016. The efforts seem to have paid off with people trusting in the positive image of the AAP.
For the AAP whose political fortunes have not been successful so far except in Delhi, Punjab and Goa are in all likelihood, their gateway to national politics. Often ridiculed as a party of part-time politicians, the AAP is in dire need of stretching its legs beyond Delhi. They need to establish themselves as a national party and a win in Punjab will give them just that.
Most opinion polls have predicted a favourable result to AAP in Punjab. In the case of a comfortable victory, Kejriwal will become the face of anti-BJP brigade. A victory in Punjab will lead the AAP to other states like Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, where the electoral battle is largely between the BJP and the Congress.
Kejriwal has never minced words when it comes to criticising the prime minister as well as the Congress. The Congress has always maintained an agenda based campaign while the AAP has followed a person-bashing campaign. The response to AAP's direct, straight attack on leaders seems to have inspired the Congress this time around in Punjab with the party also coming forward to mount direct attacks on specific leaders. The jitters that Congress, AAP and BJP have for Punjab is evident. While for the BJP winning in Punjab will come as a face-saver, for the AAP and the Congress, the win will have implications beyond the state of Punjab.
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