Pak’s thousand cuts to be hit by Doval’s double squeeze offensive defense policy this year
New Delhi, Jan 1: Pakistan will look to up the ante against India in 2019, which happens to election year. The Intelligence Bureau says that Pakistan will look to keep the Indian forces busy at the border.
Pakistan has been looking to enhance its military capabilities and this is a clear indication that the trouble at the border would high, official sources said. Going by some of the procurements, it becomes clear that Pakistan would look to hit Indian targets at a range of 4 to 5 kilometres.
The IB official said that Pakistan would look to make a desperate push to inflict India with a thousand cuts. However India would have a counter to this move and in this context would push National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval's offensive defence and double squeeze policy.
What Pakistan is doing:
To up the ante Pakistan is is procuring 245 150mm SP Mike-10 guns from Italy. Reports state that at least 120 have already been procured. In addition to this Pakistan is also eyeing the T-90 tanks from Russia.
In addition to this Pakistan is also inducting the Chinese VT-4 ranks and the trials for the same have already been conducted. A PTI reported said that at present, Pakistan is learnt to have around 17 units pf Chinese origin T-59 and T69 tanks, which comprise 30 per cent of its total tank strength, the sources said. It also has 12 regiments of Al-Zarar tanks, which makes 20 per cent of the tank fleet while Ukrain origin T-80-UD and T-85 UD as well as upgraded version of T-59 tanks comprise the rest of the 50 per cent tank fleet, they said.
"The Pakistan Army is carrying out modernisation of its armored regiments in a calibrated and time-bound manner which is not the case in India," said an expert, who wished not to be named.
He said it was a matter of concern the way Pakistan was modernising its tank fleet.
The Indian Army has also raised an independent tank brigade which is stationed in Ladakh but it is not enough, the expert added.
While on one hand the Pakistan Army would look to keep the border on the boil, on the other it would also enhance trouble in Kashmir. The intent of keeping the border busy would be to ensure that the infiltrations take place. Nearly 250 terrorists have been killed Jammu and Kashmir in 2018. With these losses, Pakistan would look to increase the terrorist count in the Valley, sources tell OneIndia.
The Indian response:
There have been questions asked if there would be a war with Pakistan. Sources say that there would be no war, but India would not play the role of a Chowkidar either. This would mean that the offensive defence and double squeeze policy would come into force.
The offensive defense and double squeeze policy of Doval's was visible during the surgical strikes that India carried out across the Line of Control following the Uri attack.
The NSA had set out a detailed plan on dealing with Pakistan.
In 2014 he had explained in detail what the 'defensive offense,' startegy was. For far too long, India's response to Pakistani terror has been defensive, "like chowkidars", just preventive, he had said. Unlike a purely chowkidar-like response to engaging with the enemy, and even unlike an all-out offensive response - where nuclear war becomes a possibility - defensive offence is when you go and attack the place where the offense is coming from.
He had also told Pakistan," they know the tricks, we know the tricks better." He felt that India had been defensive in its response to Pakistan and this strategy had failed to bring about peace despite India's restraint. The defensive strategy involved beefing up internal security in a bid to prevent terror attacks.
This, Doval felt, was ineffective because terrorists could always find a way of breaching defences and sneaking in. Doval also ruled out an offensive strategy because an all-out war could lead to the nuclear threshold being crossed.
He also suggested that Pakistan's vulnerabilities should be exploited to India's advantage through the defensive-offense mode. His game plan was deny Pakistan sponsored terrorists weapons, funds and manpower. He recommended outspending insurgent groups in a bid to contain terrorism.
Doval said most terrorists are driven by money and they can be contained by showering them with more money than what has been given to them by their handlers in Pakistan.
Another method Doval suggests is for the Indian government to work with the Muslim community through Islamic organisations to prevent the radicalisation of Indian youth. Externally, Doval recommends that India give a hard-hitting response to terrorists and their masters.
Doval recommends that India make Pakistan bear the cost of terrorist acts sponsored by its deep state. This should be done through the use of the same kind of fourth-generation covert warfare weapons that Pakistan has been using to bleed us as part of its strategy of bleeding India through a thousand cuts. The response should send a message through use of massive disproportional force that causes huge damage.