Onset of Southwest Monsoon 2021 over Kerala likely from June 1, predicts Skymet
National, May 13, 2021: Skymet, India's leading weather agency has predicted its monsoon forecast for 2021. The weather agency expected the upcoming monsoon to be 'healthy normal' to the tune of 103% (with an error margin of ± 5%) of the long period average (LPA) of 880.6mm for the 4-month period from June to September. This would make it 3rd consecutive year of normal or above normal monsoon.
Now, Skymet has released its monsoon onset date for 2021. Skymet expect the onset to be around the normal date. Based on the data from 1961-2019, the normal date of onset over Indian mainland is 01 June with a standard deviation of one week.
Onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala is largely influenced by the oceanic conditions, both in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Likely cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea will be consequential for advance of monsoon stream over Indian waters. However, tropical storm 'Tauktae' will vacate the Indian region by May 22, 2021 following which the westerly winds and cross equatorial flow will strengthen over Arabian Sea. This also will be assisted by the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) entering Indian Ocean with moderate amplitude. Pre-monsoon showers will be intense and hefty over Kerala.
Skymet predicts that this year the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on 30 May2021 with a model error of ± 2 days.