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Moody's projects India's GDP growth between 5-6 per cent in 2015

By Ians English

New Delhi, Dec 10: India's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow next year in the range of 5-6 per cent on the back of stronger domestic demand, ratings agency Moody's said on Wednesday.

"India will have stronger GDP growth in 2015, which we forecast at 5-6 per cent, up from around 5 per cent in 2014," Moody's said in their report titled 2015 Outlook - Global Credit Conditions.

India to grow between 5-6% in 2015, says Moody's
The American agency said the country has benefited from a strong domestic demand base and diversified export markets that cushion it from the effects of a slowing Chinese economy and sluggish growth in Europe and Japan.

"Employment and consumption are likely to rise in India, and the fall in global commodity prices will help to lower high inflation in the country," it added.

Growth in the earlier two consecutive fiscals has fallen below the 5 per cent level.

Moody's also said its outlook on the banking system remains negative as it expects poor asset quality to require continued provisioning and strengthened capital buffers.

"Our outlook for the Indian banking system remains negative, reflecting high leverage in the corporate sector that will inhibit any meaningful recovery in asset quality, notwithstanding a moderate rebound in economic growth," the report said.

The percentage of gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) for the banking sector is expected to worsen from 3.9 per cent of advances in fiscal 2013-14 to about 4-4.2 per cent in 2014-15, ICRA has said in a report earlier.

"Overall, the Gross NPAs of the banking sector (public sector banks + private banks) could be at 4-4.2 per cent as in March 2015, as against 3.9 per cent as in March 2014 and 4.0 per cent as in June 2014," the report said, analysing the performance of the 26 state-run and 15 private banks for the first quarter ended-June.


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